Two National League Division Series games are on tap for Tuesday, Oct. 8, and I'm all over one of them with my Phillies vs Mets player props for Game 3 at Citi Field.
I have two props for the night, with one on Mets starter Sean Manaea and the other on Phillies slugger Nick Castellanos.
Nick Martin's Phillies vs Mets Player Props — Game 3
- Sean Manaea Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-115, DraftKings)
- Nick Castellanos Over 1.5 Total Bases +145 (Bet365), Home Run +520 (FanDuel)
Sean Manaea Player Props: How to Bet His Strikeouts Prop
Manaea had a fantastic second half, posting a 3.48 ERA across 85 1/3 innings and averaging 9.28 K/9.
In his last 15 starts, he's gone over 5.5 strikeouts eight times and averaged 6.13 K's per outing. Those factors might be keeping this line a little higher than it should be for a playoff matchup against the Phillies.
The Phillies have some batters known known to take some big hacks and rack up strikeouts in the process. Still, they strike out less often versus lefties, and walk much more. Their 0.42 BB/K versus lefties ranks sixth in baseball, and they finished with the second-highest OBP against lefties.
Manaea has found success upping the usage of his sinker, and that was the strategy he employed on Sept. 21 versus the Phillies (when he threw sinkers 67.4% of the time).
He may need to mix it up a little more tonight to find success versus a Philadelphia side which just saw him in a fairly important matchup, and that could make racking up strikeouts tougher.
In 103 plate appearances versus current Phillies, Manaea has allowed a career OPS of 1.027.
Manaea also features significantly worse splits when facing a lineup for a third time in a game, as has allowed a .430 slug rate and .308 wOBA in those spots. That could suggest a short leash if things aren't going well, which would also reduce the chances he pushes over 5.5 strikeouts.
At -120 or better, I see value backing Manaea to record under 5.5 strikeouts in this tough spot against an elite lineup that has owned him historically.
Nick Castellanos Player Props: Phillies' Slugger in Great Spot
Bryce Harper has been walked a lot of times in the past two postseasons, which makes the strong form of Nick Castellanos a notable storyline in this series given his spot after Harper in the order.
In Castellanos last 75 plate appearances, he has hit .348 and holds an xBA of .358. He has a hard-hit percentage of 45% in that span.
He's had a solid start to this series, with three singles and a homer in nine at-bats. Castellanos has hit .375 (6-for-16) against Manaea in his career and slugged .1000. He also has three home runs off the Mets' Game 3 starter.
At +145 for two total-bases and +520 for a home run, I see value taking multiple shots on one of the Phillies' hottest hitters.
