Jack Flaherty will look to continue his brilliant bounce-back campaign Thursday, as he takes on one of the league's worst offenses versus right-handed pitching. Flaherty will take on Davis Daniel, who has been recalled from Triple-A Salt Lake to start for the Angels in this matchup.
Flaherty, the Tigers' starter, has managed to work five or more innings in each of his 14 starts this season, which is big a part of the handicap for our SGP, which prices out at +425 on Bet365.
Remember to bet responsibly — this is a long shot for a reason.
Tigers vs Angels MLB Parlay: Thursday SGP Picks
- Jack Flaherty to Record A Win (+125)
- Flaherty Over 6.5 Strikeouts (-140)
- Detroit Tigers Under 6.5 Total Runs (-300)
Parlay Odds: +425 (Bet365)
Jack Flaherty to Record a Win (+125)
On top of his stellar 2.92 ERA, Flaherty features tremendous underlying results this season and has done an excellent job of hanging around for five or more innings. Given that the Tigers could score some early runs against Davis, backing Flaherty to record his sixth win of the season is a natural first leg.
Flaherty has pitched to a 2.72 xERA and a 2.23 xFIP. He has also been particularly excellent on the road this season, where he holds a 2.17 ERA. Flaherty holds a 33.3% strikeout rate and a 32% strikeout rate when going through the order a third time (third best among qualified starters).
Flaherty also gets a great matchup versus an Angels team that has hit to a 83 wRC+ against righties over the past 30 days.
Jack Flaherty Over 6.5 Strikeouts (-140)
The Angels have struck out a lot versus righties of late, and don't hit for average either. Their 22.6% strikeout rate over the past month versus righties ranks 16th. The Angels have also hit for an average of just .214 over that span, so Flaherty should get lots of outs to work with to record his seven strikeouts.
Flaherty holds an elite 34.2% whiff rate, has walked only 4% of batters and has generated a 31.1% chase rate this season.
If he can hang around long enough to leave in line for a win, seven strikeouts against this lineup should be a reasonable ask.
Tigers Under 6.5 Total Runs Scored (-300)
The Tigers winning with Under 6.5 runs scored has a negative correlation with the rest of our parlay, but boosts the price significantly as a result. The main angle of our bet is backing Flaherty to have a strong performance on the mound and lead the Tigers to a win.
Detroit has hit to a 79 wRC+ versus right-handed pitching over the past 30 days. It should be able to hit Daniel to some extent, but is not likely to pile on too much. Most of the more logical scores for this game will allow us to hit this parlay without the Tigers scoring seven runs.
