Editor's Note: The Cubs placed Drew Smyly on the bereavement list on Tuesday afternoon. Scott Effross will start against the White Sox.
White Sox vs. Cubs Odds
| White Sox Odds | -145 |
| Cubs Odds | +120 |
| Over/Under | 7 (+100 / -120) |
| Time | 7:40 p.m. ET |
| TV | MLB.TV |
| Odds via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here. | |
Oh, boy! It's a good ol' interleague crosstown rivalry series between the Chicago White Sox and the Chicago Cubs.
The White Sox take the … red line (I think? I haven't been to Chicago in five years) up to Wrigley Field in hopes of reversing the "Freaky Friday" phenomenon affecting Chicago's two MLB clubs: The surprisingly underachieving White Sox look to get back into their old bodies against the (somewhat) overachieving Cubs.
Both teams are 9-13, each straining towards the .500 mark that has eluded them this season.
Chicago White Sox
The White Sox have been a bummer. However, recently Chicago split a four-game series at home against the scorching-hot Los Angeles Angels. Perhaps that was the type of moral victory that the White Sox needed in order to get back on the right track.
White Sox pitcher Michael Kopech will take the mound on Tuesday, brandishing a 1.42 ERA and 2.77 FIP. Not bad for a guy who somehow manages to wear a ponytail and a fitted hat simultaneously. My theory: very tall head paired with low pony placement.
Kopech has only allowed one earned run in nine innings on the road, but his FIP in road starts is 1.87. Pony power.
He'll be taking on an offense that is a top-five unit at home against right-handed pitching. On paper, this seems like a case of an unstoppable force against an immovable object. Nonetheless, Kopech should be up for the task considering how well he's pitched this season.
However, while Kopech's numbers are great, he also hasn't faced a good offense this season: He's faced the Tigers, Rays, Twins and Royals. Three of those four teams were bottom-third offenses in team wRC+ when Kopech faced them. The lone exception is the Rays, whom Kopech faced on his home field.
Chicago Cubs
The Cubs offense ranks 12th in wRC+ and runs scored, but it has not performed like a great MLB lineup during the past two weeks.
Chicago's 12th-place ranking includes the team's 21-run outburst against the Pittsburgh Pirates. Exclude that game as an outlier, and you are looking at a significantly worse offense during the course of the season and arguably the worst during the past two weeks.
Drew Smyly gets the starting nod for the Cubs and he has been pretty solid overall. However, his FIP is more than two full runs higher than his ERA, which means he may be due for regression.
That regression may come on Tuesday night: The White Sox have faired well against left-handed pitching on the road this season, albeit a small sample size from which to draw inferences.
White Sox-Cubs Pick
One huge factor in this matchup is going to be the weather. It's difficult to predict precisely how the wind will impact each team, but the cold will assuredly suppress both offenses. It's going to be in the mid-40's with the wind blowing in hard from left field towards the first base dugout.
Although the White Sox have put up decent offensive numbers on the road, they have not converted that production into runs: Chicago ranks 24th in runs scored on the road.
Therefore, the under seems like the best play here considering the weather and the pitching matchup. Some books still have the under at 7, which seems like a good option around -115 if you can get it.
Pick: Under 7
