Welcome to another week in the MLB season.
To start off Monday, we'll be betting on two pitchers that show plus-money lines across the market.
Our Action Labs Props Tool grades each prop on a scale from 1-10, and I’ll be sure to include the grade for each of my betting recommendations in my discussions below.
Yusei Kikuchi Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+115)
| Mariners @ Blue Jays | |
| First Pitch | 7:07 p.m. ET |
| Best Line | DraftKings |
The question is: Do you trust Yusei Kikuchi after he spun two straight gems?
I'm not so sure. Kikuchi roasted the Yankees in back-to-back starts, striking out 14 Bronx Bombers over 11 1/3 three-run innings. They were really his two highest-quality outings of the season.
Rather, I think we're getting sell-high value with Kikuchi.
There's not a lot to love about Kikuchi's game this season, even including those starts. He's still allowing a ridiculous 50% hard-hit rate, while his 25.6% CSW rate ranks below the 25th percentile.
His Baseball Savant page doesn't paint a pretty picture.
For all of Seattle's troubles, the Mariners can still shake up lefties. Over the last 30 days and against southpaws, the Mariners are third in MLB in walk rate (8%), seventh in wRC+ (107) and have posted the 12th-lowest strikeout rate (22.4%).
Outside of these past two starts against New York, Kikuchi recorded just 13 strikeouts over his first four starts this year. There's reason to believe he can regress back against a new opponent.
Our Action Labs Player Props Tool projects Kikuchi for 4.7 Ks today, which does give us slight value at the plus-money number. However, FanGraphs SaberSim projections have Kikuchi way down at 3.45 Ks.
There's enough here to fade the lefty on Monday evening.
Pick: Under 4.5 Ks (+115)
Action Labs Grade: 7/10
Luis Severino Over 5.5 Strikeouts (+115)
| Yankees @ Orioles | |
| First Pitch | 7:05 p.m. ET |
| Best Line | DraftKings |
Luis Severino is still trying to find himself after 2021 was lost to injury. But he's tossed over 90 pitches in his last two starts and recorded a whopping eight strikeouts against Toronto.
So, if we're selling high on Kikuchi, I think we can buy low on Severino.
There's no reason to trust Baltimore, which strikes out at the seventh-highest rate in MLB this season (24.5%). Severino punched out five Orioles the last time out, but he did so over just 77 pitches. His 31% CSW rate was the highest he's posted in any start this season.
So, look for Severino to pick up a few more innings and strike out a few more Orioles in this one.
The projection market loves Severino today. Our Action Labs Player Props Tool projects Severino for a whopping 6.8 Ks, while FanGraphs SaberSim projections have him at 6.5.
That gives us loads of value on a plus-money line.
Pick: Over 5.5 Ks (+115)
Action Labs Grade: 10/10
