Yankees vs. Tigers Odds
| Yankees Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
-122 | 8.5 -105 / -115 | -1.5 +146 |
| Tigers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
+104 | 8.5 -105 / -115 | +1.5 -176 |
The New York Yankees have taken a steep fall in the past month and finish up a series with the Detroit Tigers on Thursday afternoon. The Yankees will throw Clarke Schmidt, while the Tigers will send Matt Manning to the mound.
The Tigers were on a hot streak against right-handed pitching for a bit in August, but have cooled off and haven't scored more than four runs since August 22.
So, what's the best way to bet this game? Let's look at the MLB odds and make a Yankees vs. Tigers betting pick.
New York Yankees
Schmidt isn't the best starting pitcher, but he can get the job done. He has a 4.51 ERA against a 4.13 xERA. His Average Exit Velocity is 90 mph with a 8.1% Barrel Rate and a 42.2% Hard-Hit Rate. That said, his strikeout rate is 22.4% and his walk rate is 6.2%. His August ERA is over 5.00, but that's largely due to one bad start against the Braves.
The Yankees have an 81 wRC+ and a 27.3% strikeout rate off of righties this month. However, they haven't been as bad as the numbers indicate. New York has an 11.4% walk rate, the best in baseball off righties in August. They also have active seven bats with an xwOBA over .315 in August off of righties, meaning most of the lineup can put together strong plate appearances against Manning.
Not one, not two, but THREE home runs for Aaron Judge 😤
His first career 3-HR game 💥
(via @MLB)pic.twitter.com/HPHJvxZzqm
— SportsCenter (@SportsCenter) August 24, 2023
The Yankees’ bullpen is one of the reasons why it may be hard to take the full-game over. They have a 4.10 xFIP and since Schmidt is accustomed to throwing more than five innings, there won't be as much of an opportunity for the weaker arms to get into the game.
Detroit Tigers
Manning’s season has been a farce. He has a sub-4.00 ERA, but his peripherals are abysmal. Even though the Yankees haven't hit as well as they can, they should take it to Manning. The Tigers right-hander owns a 5.51 xERA with a 90.7 mph Average Exit Velocity, an 11.2% Barrel Rate and a 42.6% Hard-Hit Rate. His xwOBA is over .350. The Yankees rank third in Hard-Hit Rate this season and sixth in Average Exit Velocity. Manning doesn't walk many hitters, but New York is a terrible matchup for him because he also only strikes out 15.4% of batters.
The Tigers have a 105 wRC+ this month off of righties, but that has fallen off over the past week. They have six batters with an xwOBA over .315 in August, but Schmidt is a better pitcher than Manning. Additionally, the Tigers have been striking out 26.5% of the time off of right-handers this month, so Schmidt may prove to be a tough matchup.
Detroit's bullpen carries a 4.71 xFIP, meaning the Yankees will likely be able to score in the later innings.
Yankees vs. Tigers
Betting Pick & Prediction
