Yankees vs. Tigers Odds
| Yankees Odds | -160 |
| Tigers Odds | +140 |
| Over/Under | 11 (-110 / -110) |
| Time | 6:40 p.m. ET |
| TV | MLB.TV |
| Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here. | |
The Yankees notched a 4-2 victory over the Tigers in the series opener despite getting only 1 2/3 innings from their ace Gerrit Cole. Cole struggled mightily with his command and walked five batters in his brief outing.
New York's bullpen ultimately bailed him out with 7 2/3 innings of shutout baseball. As a result, the Yankees could use a bit of length from Wednesday's starter, Luis Severino.
Since 2019, Severino has pitched in 26 innings after battling a litany of injuries, including a lat strain, a strained groin and even Tommy John surgery. This time around, Severino is back healthy again, and he might be the perfect option to give the Yankees' bullpen a breather after a busy workload.
Ex-New York Farmhand Has Something To Prove
Severino made his debut for the Yankees on Aug. 5, 2015. The right-hander dazzled home fans by twirling seven strikeouts in five innings against their hated rivals, the Boston Red Sox.
Although Severino suffered the loss after allowing two runs (one earned), it was still an electric debut. Severino started 11 games during the 2015-16 season, earning a 5-3 record with a 2.89 ERA.
Yankee fans viewed the Dominican native as possibly their best homegrown starter since Andy Pettitte of the mid-90s. Unfortunately, Severino endured a sophomore slump the following year and went 3-8 with a 5.83 ERA in 71 innings.
His next two seasons were his best, as he went 14-6 with a 2.98 ERA in 2017 and 19-8 with a 3.39 ERA in 2018. Severino also racked up at least 190 innings and over 220 strikeouts in each season.
Those performances prompted the Yankees to buy out his remaining arbitration years and sign him to a four-year, $40 million extension in 2019. At the time, it looked like Severino might have left some money on the table. However, his decision to take the extension was correct in hindsight, given his injuries during the past three seasons.
It's not uncommon to witness pitchers return from Tommy John surgery and maintain their velocity.
That's been the case thus far with Severino, as his fastball is lighting up the radar gun at 97.6 mph. He has looked good in his two starts, and his stats further support the eye test: Severino is 1-0, boasting a 2.25 ERA and 1.13 WHIP.
Although Severino lasted only three innings against the Red Sox in his first start, it's widely known that starters were on a limited pitch count following an abbreviated spring training. Nevertheless, he still managed to strike out five batters in the outing. Next up for Severino was the Blue Jays, whom he held scoreless for five innings while striking out six batters.
Severino displays excellent command, as evidenced by a 2.53 BB/9 ratio throughout his career. Thus, as long as he's healthy, he has a great chance to pitch deeper into games because he doesn't compound mistakes by issuing unnecessary walks.
Detroit Offense Continues To Struggle
The Detroit Tigers will try to avoid a three-game losing streak for a third time this season. Though the Tigers managed to stave off another defeat in both instances, one must wonder if Detroit's luck will run out this time around.
Detroit is 4-6 on the year, but its Pythagorean expectation suggests that the team's record should be 3-7. That difference may only be one game, but it's ostensibly a two-game swing in the win-loss column.
Detroit's early struggles are primarily attributable to its offensive woes at the plate. According to FanGraphs, the Tigers rank 25th with a below-average wRC+ value of 80. Detroit is one of four clubs hitting below the Mendoza Line with a .196 team batting average.
Surprisingly, the Tigers are struggling to score runs despite ranking third in MLB with an 11.1% walk rate. The numbers suggest that if Detroit is unable to draw a walk, then it is unlikely to generate productive at-bats. We may assert this confidently, because the Tigers struggle to put the ball in play: Detroit has the third-highest strikeout rate (28.2%) in Major League Baseball.
Yankees vs. Tigers Pick
Something's got to give in this matchup between Severino's impeccable command and the Tigers' ability to draw walks. However, given the situational handicap for the game, I think the Yankees' right-hander will have the upper hand.
Severino should have more leeway to pitch deeper into the game, with this being his third start of the year. He'll know that he could give the bullpen a significant boost if he can eat up some innings. Furthermore, Severino should be brimming with confidence after shutting down a Blue Jays team that ranks eighth with a wRC+ value of 112.
This Tigers lineup hasn't shown nearly the same punch as the Blue Jays, and their strikeout rate has to be a concern. In Severino's previous four outings against the Tigers, he lasted a minimum of five innings and struck out at least eight batters.
Severino's strikeout prop is set at 5.5, and I'd recommend looking at the over here. With his odds set at -105, I would play this number as high as -125 odds.
Pick: Severino (NYY) — Over 5.5 Strikeouts (-105)
