Karol Rosa (18-6) faces Alin Perez (13-2) in the early prelims at UFC 311 from the Intuit Dome in Inglewood, Calif., on Saturday night.
Rosa has split her last six fights but is coming off a win over Pannie Kianzad back in August, while Perez has won four straight.
Let's get into my Rosa vs. Perez prediction and preview in the women's bantamweight division tonight.
Karol Rosa vs. Ailin Perez Odds, Prediction
| Women's Bantamweight Bout | Odds |
|---|---|
| Karol Rosa Odds | -250 |
| Ailin Perez Odds | +205 |
| Over/under rounds | 2.5 (-500 / +340) |
Odds via DraftKings as of Friday night.
Projection: Karol Rosa (73.5%)
Perez is an extremely popular underdog selection this week; she's getting picked to win the fight 59% of the time, on average, compared to implied odds of 32.8%.
As a result, I show value on the favorite, Rosa, up to -251 (71.5% implied) as a straight bet or -270 (73% implied) as a parlay piece.
Rosa offers incredible output (9.06 to 4.24 strikes landed per minute) and a superior gas tank. I view her as the better minute-winner across a 15-minute fight, and I wouldn't rule out an attritional stoppage in Round 3 (Rosa Wins in Round 3, +2000) if she can shut down her opponent's grappling.
Perez has shown improvements in recent fights while wrestling proactively. In her past 49 minutes inside the cage, she has landed 20 takedowns on 38 attempts.
Still, those fights came against relatively low-level opponents, and I view Rosa as the better grappler overall and the wrestling exchanges as neutral at worst.
Moreover, while Rosa has struggled on the bottom against better wrestlers, Perez has been unable to consolidate her takedowns for significant stretches (hence, attempting nearly one per 90 seconds in her past four fights).
Rosa's limited power — and lack of finishing upside — lowers her ceiling in any matchup. This fight is also the most heavily lined on the card to see the scorecards, but Rosa should have double the strike volume as Perez across a 15-minute fight.
Bet Rosa pre-fight, add more live after Round 1 if she falls behind, and consider playing her odds to win in Round 3 (+2000) as a dart throw.
Bets
- Karol Rosa (-245, 0.25u) at ESPNBet; bet to -251
- Karol Rosa Live after Round 1
