In the third matchup of the early prelims, Rinya Nakamura (9-0) faces Muin Gafurov (19-6) at UFC 311 from the Intuit Dome in Inglewood, Calif.
Nakamura has won his first three UFC fights and faces Gafurov, who snapped a two-fight losing streak with a win last June.
Let's get into my Nakamura vs. Gafurov prediction and preview in the bantamweight division tonight.
Rinya Nakamura vs. Muin Gafurov Odds, Prediction
| Bantamweight Bout | Odds |
|---|---|
| Rinya Nakamura Odds | -575 |
| Muin Gafurov Odds | +440 |
| Over/under rounds | 2.5 (-200 / +154) |
Odds via DraftKings as of Friday night.
Projection: Rinya Nakamura (82.9%)
A former U23 world champion, Rinya Nakamura is among the best technical freestyle wrestlers in the bantamweight division and has shown dominance against each of his UFC opponents, spending 75% of his octagon time in control positions.
Still, Nakamura needs to refine his striking technique or develop a more lethal submission game to grab the attention of matchmakers and ascend toward title contention within the sport's deepest division.
Nakamura should have a significant grappling advantage over Muin Gafurov, justifying his substantial favoritism.
"Tajik" does have the tools to finish the fight — power in his hands, a dynamic kicking game, and a guillotine to slap on a wrestler — but his gas tank will drain by the halfway point of the second round.
Gafurov seems relatively durable on his feet, but Nakamura should get to dominant positions on the mat and potentially finish a tiring opponent — after drowning him with wrestling — in the second half of the fight.
I show value on Nakamura to win by submission (projected +474, listed +500) and would consider betting his odds to win in Round 2 (+650) or Round 3 (+1000).
Additionally, Nakamura is a live target if he falls behind.
Bets
- Rinya Nakamura wins by Submission (+500, 0.1u) at FanDuel; bet to +500
- Rinya Nakamura Live after Round 1
