UFC 303 Odds, Pick & Prediction for Cub Swanson vs. Andre Fili: This Grizzled Vet Has Value (Saturday, June 29)

Cub Swanson vs. Andre Fili Odds

Here's the latest on the Cub Swanson vs. Andre Fili odds for UFC 303 on Saturday, June 29, with our expert pick and prediction.

One of the UFC's most overlooked legends is making what in all likelihood is one of his last few walks to the UFC octagon on Saturday. That would, of course, be "Killer" Cub Swanson.

The 40-year-old Swanson is probably the best UFC fighter to have never even contended for a title, and he has wins over fighters such as Dustin Poirier and Charles Oliveira on his resume.

His opponent, 34-year-old Andre "Touchy" Fili is no rookie himself with 22 UFC fights of his own. While he hasn't climbed to the heights that Swanson has, fighting is a young man's game, which explains the lopsided betting odds on this one.

Has time finally caught up to one of the lighter weight classes' founding fathers, or does Swanson have another vintage performance in him? Let's talk about it, and the best way to bet it, below.

Tale of the Tape

By the time he made his UFC debut, Cub Swanson was already a veteran of more than 20 MMA bouts. He was one of the top fighters in the WEC – the organization the UFC absorbed when it introduced weight classes lighter than 155 pounds – with fights against future UFC stars Jose Aldo, Jens Pulver and Chad Mendes.

The story of his career has been his inability to beat the best of the best while looking unstoppable against lesser competition. Swanson lost the aforementioned fights against Aldo, Mendes and Pulver, and he was probably a fight away from a title shot when he lost to Frankie Edgar in the UFC.

On the feet, Swanson is a fluid striker with a wide, almost karate-esque stance. He typically tempts fate by carrying his hands low while relying on elite footwork and reaction time to avoid damage.

That style allows him to dart in and out of range, generating solid power (for the weight class) while striking from weird angles.

It has its drawbacks, though. The first is that as his speed and reaction time diminish with age, the risks of getting clipped increase. The other problem is he's fairly open to leg kicks, which Jonathan Martinez recently exploited.

Swanson is also a well-regarded Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt whose feud with the Gracie family eventually led to his 2019 fight (and victory) over Kron Gracie. He mostly uses his grappling defensively, though, with his last submission victory coming in 2009.

All of which makes him stylistically somewhat similar to Andre Fili. Fili also has no UFC wins by submission, and he's largely abandoned his offensive grappling in recent years. While his takedown-per-15-minutes average is high, he's landed just two in his last six fights.

Fili also brings a fairly loose striking style, though without some of the unorthodox kicks Swanson employs. Listed as an orthodox fighter, he'll switch to a southpaw stance to fire off power left kicks – though typically to the body or head. The last time he even attempted double-digit leg strikes was a 2019 fight against Myles Jury.

All of which means this should be primarily a fun kickboxing match between two fighters trying to turn each other's lights off.

Swanson vs. Fili Pick

This line has moved heavily toward Fili over the last week after Fili opened around -155. On the one hand, I get it. Swanson is 40, and the lighter weight classes are particularly unforgiving to older fighters.

Still, he's looked good in recent fights. He's 3-2 over his last five with both losses coming to ranked opponents. One of those losses came after an attempt to drop to 135 pounds, which is never a good move for an older fighter.

Additionally, while chronologically Swanson is well older than Fili, in terms of wear and tear, it's pretty close. Fili actually has one more knockout loss in his career than Swanson. Of Swanson's four, one was via leg kicks and one via body kick; he hasn't been finished with shots to the head since 2009.

Fili was knocked out badly by Dan Ige in February, by Jonaderson Brito in 2022, and dropped by the much smaller Nathaniel Wood in 2023.

Given how both fighters like to tempt fate defensively, this one could come down to who has the better chin. I see no reason to believe it's not Swanson, even at 40.

Given the high variance likely in this fight, it also makes sense to bet on the underdog. However, I'm waiting until Saturday afternoon in hopes that public money on the younger fighter pushes the line further. I'm also interested in the Under 2.5 rounds if it gets to even money or better, so keep an eye on that market as well.

The Pick: Cub Swanson +205 (or better) at FanDuel