Modestas Bukauskas vs. Marcin Prachnio Odds
Here's the latest on the Modestas Bukauskas vs. Marcin Prachnio odds for UFC 304 on Saturday, July 27, with our betting preview.
Saturday's UFC 304 prelims on ESPN2 feature a low-stakes bout at light heavyweight.
Modestas Bukauskas, a Lithuanian fighter who now fights out of England, will be the favorite – with oddsmakers and possibly the Manchester crowd – when Bruce Buffer makes the introductions on Saturday night.
However, when it comes to these two inconsistent 205-pounders, fight fans never really know what to expect from night to night.
But we'll do our best to figure it out with our Bukauskas vs. Prachnio pick and prediction.
Tale of the Tape
| Bukauskas | Prachnio | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 15-6 | 17-7 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 9:22 | 9:56 |
| Height | 6'3" | 6'3" |
| Weight (pounds) | 205 lbs. | 205 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 78" | 74" |
| Stance | Switch | Orthodox |
| Date of birth | 2/10/1994 | 7/14/1988 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 3.28 | 5.61 |
| SS Accuracy | 41% | 55% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 3.87 | 3.30 |
| SS Defense | 50% | 54% |
| Take Down Avg | 0.00 | 0.17 |
| TD Acc | 0% | 20% |
| TD Def | 71% | 58% |
| Submission Avg | 0.0 | 0.0 |
If you've placed any previous bets for or against Bukauskas and Prachnio, I offer my sincerest apologies. Because I can't imagine you've been able to get a consistent read on either of these fighters, who have won fights they should've lost and lost fights they should've won.
Like any mid-level UFC light heavyweight, Bukauskas and Prachnio are perfectly serviceable fighters. They don't necessarily do anything at a world-class level, but they're also never really out of their depth against any level of competition.
Although Prachnio has traditionally been the more active striker, he could have some troubles against Bukauskas. Not only does Bukauskas possess a four-inch reach advantage (and the skills to use that reach well), but Prachnio can be a bit slow with the fight style he tries to implement. He also doesn't display the type of power that can consistently stop or hurt opponents.
Still, both fighters have been susceptible to knockout losses; Bukauskas, in fact, is coming off a KO defeat to Vitor Petrino.
However, I think Bukauskas' stock is perhaps a bit low due to that loss. Likewise, I think Prachnio's stock could be a bit inflated after his impressive shutout decision win over Devin Clark his last time out. Prachnio implemented a solid defensive game plan against Clark, a former collegiate wrestler, but I'm not sure those skills are what he's going to need against a patient striker like Bukauskas.
Plus, throw in some of the intangibles, including a six-year age gap that favors Bukauskas, and I think it's a favorite-or-pass situation for this UFC 304 prelim.
Bukauskas vs. Prachnio Pick
Bukauskas has shown off some new and polished skills in this second UFC stint of his. The two-time Cage Warriors champion can put them to good use against a fighter like Prachnio, who's likely going to need to crash the pocket to win rounds. And that's not a strong point for the 36-year-old, who doesn't have the needed speed to do so effectively.
Plus, though Prachnio is typically the much more active fighter, I think Bukauskas can dictate the pace of this fight.
Look, there will be better spots to target at UFC 304. But you could do worse than a half-unit play on Bukauskas' moneyline, which is -155 at the time of this writing. That translates to an implied win probability of 60.8%. I'd put fair odds of Bukauskas winning at closer to 65% (-186).
However, I've got a feeling I may be in the minority this week, and I could see Prachnio being a popular underdog play. So you may get a better line on Bukauskas if you wait until closer to fight day.
I'll also be interested to look at the prop markets for the fight once they open later this week. If Prachnio does better than I expect on Saturday night, I still think he'll struggle to the finish, and we could be looking at the possibility of a prop bet on a juicy split/majority decision that's worth a sprinkle.
The Pick: Modestas Bukauskas (-155 at DraftKings, 0.5 units)
