Shauna Bannon vs. Alice Ardelean Odds
Check out the latest Shauna Bannon vs. Alice Ardelean odds for UFC 304 on Saturday, July 27, with this first fight of the night.
Alice Ardelean haș 580,000 followers on Instagram and 3 million on TikTok, and it's not because of her fighting skills. Not entirely, anyway.
So – perhaps no big shock here – she's also got a bit of a following on OnlyFans, where she mixes a healthy dose of comedy with the occasional lack of clothing.
However, Ardelean isn't your typical digital pin-up. She owns a 9-5 pro MMA record (11-5 when including some decent exhibition wins). She's crushed cans, no doubt, but Ardelean has also fought some very credible competition, and she's got better skills than most doubters might expect.
If Shauna Bannon doesn't take her late-notice opponent seriously on Saturday night, Ardelean could very well have a new type of highlight reel for her fans to enjoy.
Here's my Bannon vs. Ardelean pick and prediction for this weekend.
Tale of the Tape
| Bannon | Ardelean | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 5-1 | 9-5 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 15:00 | n/a |
| Height | 5'5" | n/a |
| Weight (pounds) | 115 lbs. | 115 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 65" | n/a |
| Stance | Switch | Orthodox |
| Date of birth | 10/23/1993 | 4/19/1992 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 3.60 | 0.00 |
| SS Accuracy | 37% | 0% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 3.73 | 0.00 |
| SS Defense | 37% | 0% |
| Take Down Avg | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| TD Acc | 0% | 0% |
| TD Def | 33% | 0% |
| Submission Avg | 0.0 | 0.0 |
In fairness to Ardelean, she isn't using a UFC career to launch an OnlyFans side hustle. She already has a following. If anything, the UFC is using the 32-year-old Romain-born Brit to help fill the seats early for this UFC 304 curtain-jerker in England.
Also in fairness to Ardelean, she's fought some legit names: Weili Zhang, Diana Belbita and Sylwia Juskiewicz, for example. Of course, she lost all of those fights pretty definitively.
That's when she pivoted from "fighter" to "fighter with an OnlyFans" and went on a can-crushing tour that resulted in her current seven-fight winning streak (including a pair of exhibition wins on a knockoff of The Ultimate Fighter). However, it took seven years to register those seven wins.
Ardelean is big and strong, and she's not afraid to charge forward with pressure. Her striking leaves a lot to be desired, and shorter and crisper punches could be much more effective than the looping shots she flings from her waist. Still, she's dogged with that forward pressure and she mixes in her kicks effectively, and that could work well against Bannon.
Ardelean is also pretty good in the clinch (against physically weaker competition, anyway). She uses strength and a solid base to control the clinch, and she can fling opponents to the mat rather effortlessly when she gets position. Her strength makes up for some of her grappling deficiencies and also presents the occasional submission opportunity.
Bannon, though, has complemented her solid kickboxing skills with an improving ground game. She hasn't fought in a year, but she's pretty much been in camp that whole time due to fight cancellations, and she even picked up some hardware at an IBJJF tournament.
Still, I'm not sure the 30-year-old Irish fighter is really any better than what we saw in her UFC-debut loss to Bruna Brasil: a fighter who's light on her feet with good cardio – but one who lacks the power and creativity to consistently win rounds. Then again, she's had a year to shore up her deficiencies, and the UFC no doubt considers this a favorable matchup for the Irishwoman.
Bannon vs. Ardelean Pick
While fight fans were quick to tsk-tsk the UFC for "signing an OnlyFans model," bettors have been a little more open-minded about Ardelean. Her line was briefly available at an opening north of +200 at some sportsbooks until bettors quickly knocked it down to the current +146 to +163 range.
At those odds, sportsbooks give Ardelean a 38-41% chance of winning. I give her about a 35-40% chance, so I don't see any value on the moneyline. (However, if Ardelean's odds somehow return to +200 (33.3%) or longer, I'll probably take a small bite of that action.)
But I also like a small bet on the over/under of 2.5 rounds. Yes, women's fights typically go the distance, and yes, neither lady has too much KO power to speak of. But I like the under.
Given the short-notice nature of the bout, the physical-strength discrepancy, the likelihood this fight hits the mat, and each fighter's decent submission game, I see potential for a finish. Plus, if Ardelean proves to be a fraud who simply rolls over in this fight in exchange for the paycheck and publicity, we're covered too.
Given the current +175 odds (36.4%), I'm willing to take a half-unit bet that this one ends early. I put the chances at closer to 45% (+122).
If you prefer to wait, sportsbooks should also soon open "fight does not go to decision" prop markets. The payout won't be as big if you go that route, but it'll give you another half-round of insurance against a late-stoppage that would otherwise go Over 2.5 rounds.
The Pick: Shauna Bannon vs. Alice Ardelean Under 2.5 rounds (+175 at ESPN BET, 0.5 units)
