Jack Jenkins vs. Herbert Burns Odds
| Jenkins Odds | -800 |
| Burns Odds | +475 |
| Over/Under | 1.5 (-110 / -120) |
| TV | RAC Arena – Perth, Australia |
| Time | 8 p.m. ET |
| Location | ESPN & ESPN+ |
| UFC 305 odds as of Saturday and via ESPN BET. Bet on UFC 305 with our ESPN BET promo code! | |
Check out the Jack Jenkins vs. Herbert Burns odds with my UFC 305 pick and prediction for Saturday, August 17.
Saturday's UFC 305 prelims feature a bout between unranked featherweights with Jenkins vs. Burns.
The steam is heavily on Jenkins in this matchup; he opened at -500 on the moneyline and is now listed at -900 at ESPN BET at the time of this writing.
I agree with the steam, and here is how I will be backing the massive favorite with a prop bet in my Jenkins vs. Burns preview for UFC 305.
Tony Sartori's Tale of the Tape
| Jenkins | Burns | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 12-3 | 11-5 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 13:12 | 5:00 |
| Height | 5'7" | 5'9" |
| Weight (pounds) | 145.5 lbs. | 146 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 68" | 73" |
| Stance | Switch | Orthodox |
| Date of birth | 11/3/1993 | 2/2/1988 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 4.43 | 1.73 |
| SS Accuracy | 61% | 40% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 3.07 | 4.60 |
| SS Defense | 59% | 41% |
| Take Down Avg | 2.56 | 3.00 |
| TD Acc | 69% | 42% |
| TD Def | 75% | 66% |
| Submission Avg | 0.0 | 2.5 |
As suggested by the odds, this fight is about as sizable of a mismatch as you will see on a PPV card. While Jenkins is a solid prospect, the odds are more of an indictment of Burns than anything else.
It won't be much longer until Burns is out of the UFC as he looks to avoid his fourth consecutive knockout loss. His chin is completely gone, which is a recipe for disaster against a striker of Jenkins' caliber.
There's not really a single aspect of MMA (other than one) in which Burns is stronger than Jenkins. Burns is worse on the feet, both offensively and defensively, while also possessing a more susceptible chin.
Jenkins has also landed takedowns with greater accuracy while defending them at a higher clip than Burns. Going back to the one advantage I give Burns: He is a third-degree black belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu and the larger submission threat.
With that said, Jenkins has not lost by submission in more than six years, and it occurred in only his fourth-ever professional MMA bout. He technically has two submissions losses on his record, but one was verbal due to an injury.
Jenkins vs. Burns Pick
The question to ask with this fight is not "Do we back Jenkins?" but rather "How do we back Jenkins?" Oddsmakers are expecting this fight to end inside the distance, given that it is priced at -600 to do so.
Subsequently, Jenkins' method-of-victory odds at ESPN BET are as follows:
- KO/TKO (-250)
- Submission (+800)
- Decision (+450)
It makes sense that Jenkins by KO/TKO is the most likely outcome, given Burns' glass chin and the fact that the favorite thrives in the striking department. With that said, I still don't have much interest in laying -250, so now we head to the round-by-round market.
This is where I want to back Jenkins to eventually win in Round 2 (KO, submission or DQ) at +250. Burns can survive for a little bit if there is a feeling-out process in Round 1, which has been the case in three consecutive fights.
He lost all three of those fights by KO/TKO, with all three occurring in Round 2. On the other hand, two of Jenkins' past three KO wins have come in Round 2.
The Pick: Jack Jenkins in Round 2 (+250 at ESPN BET | Play to +230)
