Let’s look into some mispriced UFC Vegas 83 betting odds for Saturday and see which fighters are overvalued and which are undervalued heading into the ESPN+ event.
UFC Vegas 83 takes place tonight at the UFC Apex facility in Las Vegas, and the entire 11-fight event streams on ESPN+ beginning at 7:30 p.m. ET (4:30 p.m. PT).
And based on our UFC Vegas 83 Luck Ratings, there's early value throughout Saturday's fight card that bettors may still be able to capitalize on during fight day.
One of the first “aha!” moments I had in gambling (generally, not just MMA) was to start thinking about why markets might be wrong, rather than just trying to predict what I think will happen.
At its core, that’s what a betting line is: a market where we can “buy” or “sell” events happening. For the most part, these markets are efficient, with the “price” eventually reflecting the true odds of the event.
Odds as of Tuesday and via DraftKings. Maximize your UFC Vegas 83 betting action with our DraftKings Promo Code.
While this is less true in MMA – where there are far more information asymmetries than in major markets like the NFL or NBA – it’s still broadly (and increasingly) the case. Therefore, to beat the markets over the long term, we need to figure out spots where they’re wrong.
That’s the point of this piece. Inspired by our NFL “Luck Rankings,” I’ll be looking into spots where variance has favored one fighter more than another, causing the line to be inefficient. The biggest input will be split and/or controversial decisions, with short-notice fights, fights that are later overruled, fluke injuries, and out-of-weight-class fights considered, as well.
The focus will be on fights reasonably likely to see the scorecards here, or where one fighter holds most of the finishing upside.
Song Yadong (-380) vs. Chris Gutierrez (+300)
Not much " luck " is involved in the UFC Vegas 83 main event, at least recently.
Both headliners have a split-decision win and a draw on their UFC records. They've both had at least four fights since their split decision win — and both were pretty clearly the better fighters in their draws.
For Song Yadong, he had a point deduction in the first round that turned what would've been a victory into a majority draw.
For Chris Gutierrez, he dropped an opening round 10-8 before clearly winning the last two rounds. Both fighters would've picked up wins if not for some inconsistently enforced rulings – both 10-8 rounds and point deductions are maddeningly sporadic in the UFC.
Still, the line movement toward the Chinese prospect has gotten perhaps a bit out of hand early in the week, especially with this card being moved from China to Las Vegas. In theory, at least, that should benefit the non-Asian fighters who now have much less travel issues to deal with, though Yadong primarily trains with Team Alpha Male in California.
Either way, these two have nearly identical UFC records against roughly equivalent opposition. "El Guapo" is still just 32, so we aren't expecting him to be on the decline despite being the older fighter. Yadong is a deserving favorite, but not to the level he's currently lined.
I'd wait, though, as money seems to be coming in on "Kung Fu Kid," and we might get an even better line closer to fight day.
Verdict: Chris Gutierrez Undervalued (But Wait)
Khalil Rountree (-245) vs. Anthony Smith (+200)
Anthony Smith is stepping in on somewhat short notice as Khalil Rountree was originally booked against a different opponent this past weekend at UFC Austin.
Moving the fight back a week certainly helps Smith here as he gets roughly 12 days to get prepared and on weight as opposed to less than a week.
Still, I suspect the short-notice nature of the bout is why Smith is an underdog. He's coming off a split-decision win over Ryan Spann that mostly laid to rest concerns that he was washed. While the split nature of the win could be concerning, he was clearly the deserving winner in that one.
Rountree has a recent split-decision win that was considerably more questionable. He picked up the victory despite being outstruck 120-85. He followed that up with a knockout win over Chris Daukaus, but that was the fourth consecutive KO loss for Daukaus, which takes a bit of the shine off the win for Rountree.
Prior to that, Smith's wins have largely been against a lower level of competition, making this a step up for Rountree.
Early posting books have already backed off on the price for Smith, who opened a bit above +200 throughout the industry. I'd hop on his price now at FanDuel, which is still at +200, before it shifts down even further.
Verdict: Anthony Smith Undervalued
Junyong Park (-180) vs. Andre Muniz (+150)
Over his last five fights, Junyong Park has three submission wins, a knockout loss, and a highly controversial split decision win over Eryk Anders.
Andre Muniz is 3-2 over his last five, losing fights to top grapplers Brendan Allen and Paul Craig while picking up two submission wins of his own – including over Anders.
I always warn against "MMA Math" as a handicapping strategy, but the respective results against Anders are hard to ignore here. Both men are primarily grapplers, but Park was thoroughly outwrestled by Anders whereas Muniz was able to submit him in the first round.
I'm expecting a grappling-heavy fight in this one, which should heavily favor Muniz. "Sergipano" is a high-level BJJ black belt, and he should be able to get the better of those exchanges.
We've also seen the moneyline swing his way already, as he opened around +220. I'll likely look to hedge a bit with some type of bet on Park to win this one late (or a live bet on Park), but from a prefight standpoint, Muniz is undervalued.
The best line as of Monday afternoon is +186 on FanDuel.
Verdict: Andre Muniz Undervalued
Rayanne Amanda (-162) vs. Talita Alencar (+136)
Talita Alencar was initially denied a contract after her Contender Series appearance, which resulted in a rare draw.
She is an insanely credentialed jiu-jitsu practitioner, winning black belt world titles in both gi and no-gi in 2017, as well as two other no-gi world titles.
Alencar put that on display in her Contender Series bout while winning the first two rounds with her grappling. However, she gassed out in the third after failing to secure a submission, and she dropped the final frame 10-8 leading to the draw.
Now she gets her chance in the UFC proper against Rayanne Amanda, who is also primarily a grappler with eight of her 14 professional wins by submission.
Crucially, she's fought almost exclusively at atomweight (105 pounds) in her career. Her last two bouts at strawweight (115 pounds) were both losses, including one in her own appearance on the Contender Series.
Alencar is fairly small for the division herself, but at worst she'll be fighting an equally sized opponent here, rather than giving up size and strength. That factor, plus my general desire to have plus-money tickets on fights very likely to hit the judges, has me leaning toward Alencar.
However, her moneyline has trickled up throughout the week, so let's get greedy and see if we can't find a +150 or so closer to fight day.
