Check out our UFC predictions for UFC Vegas 90: Allen vs. Curtis 2 on Saturday, April 6, with our Luck Ratings.
Rising middleweight contenders Brendan Allen and Chris Curtis rematch in Saturday night's UFC main event.
The entire UFC Vegas 90 lineup streams on ESPN+ beginning at an early start time of 3 p.m. ET (noon PT). The six-fight main card portion starts at 6 p.m. ET.
One of the first “aha!” moments I had in gambling (generally, not just MMA) was to start thinking about why markets might be wrong, rather than just trying to predict what I think will happen.
At its core, that’s what a betting line is: a market where we can “buy” or “sell” events happening. For the most part, these markets are efficient, with the “price” eventually reflecting the true odds of the event.
While this is less true in MMA – where there are far more information asymmetries than in major markets like the NFL or NBA – it’s still broadly (and increasingly) the case. Therefore, to beat the markets over the long term, we need to figure out spots where they’re wrong.
That’s the point of this piece. Inspired by our NFL “Luck Rankings,” I’ll look into spots where variance has favored one fighter more than another, causing the line to be inefficient. The biggest input will be split and/or controversial decisions, with short-notice fights, fights that are later overruled, fluke injuries, and out-of-weight-class fights also considered.
The focus will be on fights reasonably likely to see the scorecards here, or where one fighter holds most of the finishing upside.
*UFC odds as of Monday and via DraftKings. Bet on UFC Vegas 90 with our DraftKings promo code.
UFC Predictions & Luck Ratings
Brendan Allen (-205) vs. Chris Curtis (+170)
For seemingly the 10th time in 2024, we have a UFC Apex event headlined by ranked middleweights. This time it's a rematch between Brendan Allen (No. 6-ranked contender) and Chris Curtis (No. 14).
Rematches tend to favor the fighter who won in the first bout. That would be Curtis, who pulled a surprise upset in just his second UFC fight back in 2021, after accepting the matchup on short notice.
However, rematches also favor the younger fighter, which, of course, is Allen. He's still just 28 despite having 13 UFC appearances. Curtis is 36.
Recent form also heavily favors Allen, who's picked up submission victories in four straight fights. Curtis is coming off a split-decision victory and a no-contest in a fight he was probably losing. He's lucky to be 1-0-1 in that span when he could easily be 0-3.
All things considered, Allen at about a 2-to-1 price feels about right. Especially considering Curtis took this one on somewhat short notice in place of Allen's original opponent, Marvin Vettori. I'd be interested in either fighter if the line moves significantly, though.
Verdict: Fairly Valued
Alexander Hernandez (-198) vs. Damon Jackson (+164)
I don't understand the line movement in Saturday's UFC Vegas 90 co-main event.
Damon Jackson opened as around a +140 underdog, but he's since seen his odds rise to +164 against Alexander Hernandez.
Sure, Jackson's riding a two-fight losing skid. But those were against a ranked opponent in Dan Ige, and a close 29-28 decision to Billy Quarantillo.
Hernandez is 1-3 over his past four with his only win coming against 39-year-old Jim Miller. In that span, Quarantillo knocked him out, Renato Moicano submitted him, and Bill Algeo dominated him.
The fast-starting Hernandez has a path to victory here, of course, but I'd make this line much closer than it is. Especially after a few minutes – making this a strong live-betting spot.
I still want some exposure to Jackson pre-fight, but I'll wait a bit to see if the line gets any longer. If it doesn't, we can always wait for live opportunities.
Verdict: Damon Jackson Undervalued
Charlie Campbell (-192) vs. Trevor Peek (+160)
Trevor Peek is another fighter who's somewhat surprisingly seen the line go against him early in the week.
However, this time faster books (including DraftKings) have already course-corrected, with his line rising as high as +185 before falling back to +160.
Caesars Sportsbook and BetRivers still have Peek at +180, while BetMGM has Campbell as cheap as -185 as of this writing.
While this has nothing to do with fighter "luck," I'm fairly confident taking the +180 on Peek will provide an arbitrage opportunity at some point during the week.
So that's what I'm doing as of Monday, but keep your eye on the line for opportunities to come back on the other side.
