Zachary Reese (8-1) faces Azamat Bekoev (18-3) as part of the prelims of UFC 311 on Saturday night at the Intuit Dome in Inglewood, Calif.
Reese has won back-to-back fights and is 2-1 in the UFC, while Bekoev is making his UFC debut on the back of six straight wins.
Let's get into my Reese vs. Bekoev prediction and preview in the middleweight division tonight.
Zachary Reese vs. Azamat Bekoev Odds, Prediction
| Middleweight Bout | Odds |
|---|---|
| Zachary Reese Odds | +160 |
| Azamat Bekoev Odds | -192 |
| Over/under rounds | 1.5 (-188 / +145) |
Odds via DraftKings as of Friday night.
Projection: Azamat Bekoev (54.5%)
Reese was initially scheduled to face Sedriques Dumas (as a -275 favorite) but will get LFA middleweight champion Azamat Bekoev instead on short notice.
Reese is the bigger man (4 inches taller, 5-inch reach advantage), seemingly the more potent finisher and proved he has 15-minute cardio in his recent win over Jose Medina, landing more than 100 significant strikes for the fight and completing four takedown attempts in the third round.
Although that fight was seemingly a mismatch, Reese, who previously fit into the quick finish or bust archetype, upgraded his ceiling by showing average cardio.
I'd give Bekoev a greater chance of winning this matchup on a whole camp, but the short notice booking could neutralize the cardio dynamic. Reese is an extraordinarily chaotic and unorthodox opponent, and I'd expect him to remain the more dangerous fighter throughout as the bigger man.
I'd expect Bekoev to look to wrestle and get on top of Reese early. Still, Reese has a lethal guard game and is happy to hunt for submissions off his back. Moreover, I haven't been impressed with Bekoev's striking and view Reese as the likelier of the pair to land the more impactful damage at a distance.
Reese vs. Bekoev Prediction
Bet Reese to +130 and consider his inside-the-distance prop at +225 or higher (projected +201).
Additionally, consider betting the Under 2.5 Rounds to -160 or the Fight to End Inside the Distance (projected -219, listed -175) at -200 or better.
Bets
- Zachary Reese (+164, 0.25u) at FanDuel; bet to +130
- Zachary Reese wins Inside the Distance (+275, 0.1u) at DraftKings; bet to +225
- Fight Ends Inside the Distance (-170, 0.25u) at Caesars; bet to -200
- Fight Ends Inside the Distance (-170, 0.25u) at Caesars; bet to -200
