(Note: The Coke Zero Sugar 400 on Saturday night has been postponed until Sunday, July 7 at 1 p.m. ET)
Tonight's Coke Zero 400 will feature high speeds and close racing. Superspeedway races are known for their inherent randomness, so that makes matchups run close. As a result, it can be hard to find value because books often set lines that imply a nearly 50/50 result.
However, if you shop around, you can still find some nice head-to-head matchups, along with some mis-priced props, in the marketplace.
Paul Menard +155 over Kyle Busch
Kyle Busch is a strong superspeedway racer, but as is the nature of this type of racing, there's enough of a chance of Busch getting caught in a wreck that this line leans too far in Busch's favor.
Busch has finished 20th or worse in seven of his past 11 superspeedway races. Meanwhile, Menard is an under-the-radar driver when it come to superspeedways. He has three top-six finishes in his past five Daytona points races, and nearly won the season-opening Advance Auto Parts Clash before being wrecked by Jimmie Johnson with four laps remaining.
Busch should be favored, but not by this much. I'd bet Menard down to +130.
Field -310 over Joey Logano, Denny Hamlin, Chase Elliott
Hamlin and Elliott are the two superspeedway winners this year, and Logano is widely considered a favorite to win this race. However, just looking at this from a pure numbers perspective, this trio should be a bigger dog than they are against the field.
There are approximately 18 drivers that have a realistic chance of winning this race, and another 10 have a credible chance at a longshot victory. Certainly, all drivers don't have an equal chance, but with the likes of Brad Keselowski, Kyle Busch, and other extremely strong contenders in the field, the odds are stacked against this trio.
I'll take 37 drivers vs. these three at this price, and would bet it up to -400.
