Due to tire falloff and multiple grooves to make passes, Homestead-Miami Speedway is a popular track among NASCAR drivers and motorsports bettors.
A significant drop off in speed as tires wear makes practice more predictive, providing valuable insight regarding which drivers will be fast during Sunday's 4EVER 400 (2:30 p.m. ET, NBC).
Now, I'm not ignoring practice altogether when building my full betting card for today's race. However, I'm leaning heavily on past performance to find NASCAR odds value in the pick detailed below.
Let me explain.
NASCAR Odds, Pick for Homestead
*NASCAR odds as of Sunday
Some tracks just set up well for a driver's style and that has clearly been the case regarding Austin Dillon and Homestead.
In nine career Cup Series starts here, Dillon has finishes of 25th, 14th, 12th, 11th, 11th, eighth, seventh, 12th and fourth.
While never bad outside of his first visit to Homestead, the driver of the No. 3 Chevrolet has eight top-15 finishes in those nine races, including three top-1os in his last four.
And perhaps most important is that his fourth-place run came last season, which means that performance was also piloting the Next Gen car.
Additionally, the Richard Childress Racing driver qualified sixth for today's race, providing that always-important track position.
Odds of +800 translate to an implied probability of 11.11%, and since he's accomplished this feat at a 33.33% rate in his career and a 75% rate over his last four races at Homestead, this is a very attractive wager.
I don't expect Dillon to race to the front and mix it up with the leaders, but getting a driver with his track history, especially recently, and an optimal starting position at +800 NASCAR odds for a top-10 finish is simply too good for me to ignore.
The bet: Austin Dillon +800 for a Top-10 Finish (bet365)
