The featured driver matchups for Sunday's NASCAR Hollywood Casino 400 (3 p.m. ET, USA) at Kansas Speedway are among the tightest I've seen this season.
By "tightest," I mean that the odds are right on in my mind, leaving little early value on the table.
My overall betting strategy for Kansas is to wait until practice and qualifying are in the books so there's data to analyze ahead of Sunday's Hollywood Casino 400, and this includes driver matchups.
But if you're one who likes getting down early in the week, here's my favorite featured driver matchup of the bunch for Sunday's race at Kansas.
NASCAR Picks for Kansas
*Odds as of Wednesday morning
As I mentioned above, these matchups are really tight and we're splitting hairs at this point to find value.
That said, the underlying metrics suggest that Daniel Suarez should be a better performer than Erik Jones on Sunday afternoon.
While Jones does have the better average finish of the two at the 1.5-mile tracks already run this season (Las Vegas, Kansas and Charlotte), there's a real argument to be made that Suarez has had the faster car in these events.
First, Suarez has run the sixth-most fast laps in these three races compared to Jones' 19th most.
In addition, Suarez had enough speed to maneuver his No. 99 Trackhouse Racing Chevy to lead the ninth-most laps at 1.5-mile tracks this season.
Jones, on the other hand, has not led a single lap.
Again, I'm not rushing to the window to get this bet down, but there is data to suggest that Suarez will unload with a faster ride than Jones this weekend at Kansas.
The bet: Daniel Suarez (-135) over Erik Jones at DraftKings
