With just four races remaining in the NASCAR Cup Series season, teams head to Las Vegas Motor Speedway for Sunday's South Point 400 (2:30 p.m. ET, NBC), the first playoff race of the Round of 8.
We now have plenty of data on 1.5-mile tracks this season, including two races run on the tire combination that cars will use Sunday at Las Vegas.
Speaking of tires, Goodyear updated the tire compound for 1.5-mile racetracks in the middle of the season, with the Cup Series already having used this weekend's setup at both Kansas and Texas.
When it comes to the surface itself, Las Vegas is much closer to Kansas than Texas, but we'll still use both races in order to find the best available featured driver matchup for Sunday's South Point 400.
NASCAR Pick for Las Vegas
*Odds as of Tuesday
It's hard to bet against Chase Elliott right now, but Joey Logano +130 against the Hendrick Motorsports driver is at least worth a look.
Logano has quietly been among the fastest drivers on this tire combo, posting the second-best average running position and the third-best driver rating in those two races.
Elliott, on the other hand, has the 11th-best average running position and the eighth-best rating.
In addition, Logano's Team Penske Ford has been an absolute rocket in qualifying on this tire combination, starting second at both Kansas and Texas compared to Elliott's 22th- and sixth-place efforts.
While having a better starting spot and pit stall would obviously be an advantage for Logano, I'm not all that concerned about track position here, but from a NASCAR odds perspective, projecting the No. 22 Ford to out-qualify the No. 9 Chevy means that this price might shorten between now and Sunday's race.
There is a fair argument to be made that Elliott should still be favored in this matchup, and that's fine by me, but -150 against a driver as good as Logano and a car that's been very fast on this track-type is too rich for my blood, leading me to buy back Joey at +130 odds.
The bet: Logano (+130) over Elliott at DraftKings
