While perusing early NASCAR odds for Sunday's NOCO 400 (3 p.m. ET, FS1) at Martinsville Speedway, my eyes were quickly drawn to a handful of drivers with longshot value.
While I'm not interested in betting sleepers for Martinsville outright at this point, it's tough to pass on some of the prop bet value that's available right now for Sunday's race.
In fact, there's one driver whom I'm already keying in on for Martinsville before odds shorten even further.
NASCAR Pick for Martinsville
*Odds as of Wednesday afternoon
Martinsville is a very unique and tough track that has thrown all-time great drivers for a loop early in their careers.
For example, both Jeff Gordon and Jimmie Johnson struggled at the track before eventually figuring out how to find speed at the "Paperclip."
And while rare, a lucky few immediately take to the tight, flat turns of Martinsville — Noah Gragson is one of these drivers.
In the Camping World Truck Series, Gragson has finishes of fourth, first, fifth and seventh and continued his success at Martinsville in the XFINITY Series, earning results of third, second, first, 20th (but with the second-most fast laps run) and fourth.
Yes, he did struggle to a 25th-place finish at Martinsville in the Cup Series last fall while subbing for Alex Bowman, but Gragson did mention that his focus was on chasing the XFINITY Series championship last year — not pushing the Cup car.
Am I confirmation-biasing my way to ignoring his run here at the end of last season? Probably.
But Gragson's full body of work at Martinsville is tough for me to ignore.
At 16-1 odds via Bet365, I'm taking the driver of the No. 42 Chevrolet to score a top-10 finish Sunday at Martinsville.
Is another run outside of the top 20 in store? Potentially. But I'm also willing to bet (obviously) that Gragson will finish in the top 10 more than 5.88% of the time, which is what his 16-1 odds imply.
The bet: Gragson (16-1) for a Top-10 Finish via Bet365
