There's not a lot of NASCAR data to work off ahead of Sunday's Firekeepers Casino 400 (3 p.m. ET, USA) at Michigan International Speedway.
First, this is the Cup Series' first race at Michigan in the Next Gen car, so there's already uncertainty regarding which drivers will be fast on Sunday.
And second, while there are tracks somewhat similar to Michigan, there are no great comps, making it difficult to lean on previous races this season.
In fact, Michigan is so unique that Goodyear is bringing a brand new tire for teams to run this weekend.
Because of this, the Firekeepers Casino 400 is not a race I want to bet too much on until cars hit the track for practice and qualifying on Saturday.
However, there is one NASCAR featured driver matchup worth considering if you are jonesing for a little early-week action.
NASCAR Pick for Michigan
*Odds as of Wednesday afternoon
In my mind, two of the best comps we can use for Michigan are the races run at Kansas and Charlotte earlier this season.
They're certainly not perfect, but at this point, it's all we have.
And in those two races, Daniel Suarez showed much more speed than his finishes would suggest.
Despite just the 33rd-best average finish over those two races, Suarez ran 52 fast laps, the fourth-most of any driver.
Additionally, Saurez's Trackhouse Racing teammate Ross Chastain posted the second-most fast laps over that sample, so both of these cars are very fast at high-speed intermediate tracks.
Conversely, Bubba Wallace, who has rallied for some really good runs of late, posted just 11 total fast laps in those two races.
To be completely frank, I don't love this matchup due to the lack of data, but there are worse bets than snagging Suarez (-125) to finish ahead of Wallace at DraftKings Sportsbook, especially considering that this number has already stretched to -135 at BetMGM as well.
The bet: Suarez (-125) over Wallace
