The NASCAR featured matchups for Sunday's Kwik Trip 250 (3 p.m. ET, USA) at Road America are quite interesting compared to what we typically see.
While Kyle Busch vs. Christopher Bell and Chase Elliott vs. Martin Truex Jr. are similar to the featured matchups posted each week, Alex Bowman vs. Corey LaJoie and Chase Briscoe vs. Ty Dillon are not.
So, if you're someone who wants to back a big favorite or take a shot at decent plus-money — especially considering that road course results can be a bit random — then this is your week!
But for me, I'm settling on Busch vs. Bell as my favorite of the bunch for Road America.
NASCAR Pick for Road America
*Odds as of Wednesday morning
I'm not yet bullish enough to bet on this matchup, but I lean Busch at -125 over Bell.
To start, I'm focusing much more closely on this year's race at Circuit of the Americas (COTA) as opposed to Sonoma because, in Busch's own words, he believes that COTA is the better comparison to Road America.
While Bell did finish ahead of Busch (third vs. 28th), the underlying metrics tell a different story.
Busch actually bested his Joe Gibbs Racing teammate in average running position, –11th vs. 17th, respectively — and was three positions ahead of Bell before a caution came out with three laps remaining in that race.
On the ensuing overtime restart, Bell was able to sneak ahead of Busch before the driver of the JGR No. 18 spun, relegating him to that 28th place finish.
This leads me to believe that Busch was actually the better performer at COTA and is the smarter side of this Road America featured matchup.
The bet: Busch -125 over Bell (BetMGM)
