On Sunday Talladega Superspeedway plays host to the 10th race of the 2023 NASCAR Cup Series season. It also marks the third drafting race of the year, which combined with last year's six races, gives us a nice eight-race sample size in the Next Gen car to analyze.
Books have been pretty stingy with their odds over the past several weeks, and this week has been no exception. I haven't placed a winning driver bet yet, but I do think combining teammates into a single bet is worthy of a shot. That helps reduce the variance a bit by having multiple avenues to the win.
Here's where I'm heading with that angle.
NASCAR Odds, Picks for Talladega
The Roush Fenway Keselowski (RFK) Racing drivers of Brad Keselowski and Chris Buescher have run very well at superspeedways in the Next Gen era.
Looking at their individual odds, the NASCAR Bet Center at Action Network shows the best available odds for Keslowski is +1500 at DraftKings while Buescher's is a touch longer at +2200 at multiple books. That means Keselowski's lowest implied win probability is 6.3% while Buescher's is 4.3% – for a combined 10.6%. That means fair odds on the team bet using these individual bets is +844.
Caesars Sportsbook is offering +1000 on RFK Racing to win. That's an implied win probability of 9.1% representing a 16.5% relative value compared to betting the two drivers individually.
My model also shows this as value, as it has the two drivers combined to win just north of 10% of the time. That seems to make sense, as the RFK Racing drivers have led 10.8% of the laps at drafting tracks in the Next Gen era.
That includes a runner-up finish by Keselowski at the series' most recent drafting race at Atlanta. In fact, RFK drivers have been able to bring home solid finishes quite often. They've suffered only five race-ending incidents in 16 combined starts. That's a rate 11.1% lower than the whole field.
By continuing to run up front, Keslowski and Buescher increase their chances of avoiding major incidents and eventually capitalizing on their track position and laps led.
The Bet: RFK Racing Winning Team +1000 | Bet to: +900
