Track position will be the name of the game for Sunday's Autotrader EchoPark Automotive 400 (3:30 p.m. ET, USA) at Texas Motor Speedway.
Track position always matters, but it could be even more important today at Texas, a track where passing can be tough even though the Next Gen car has performed well on other 1.5-mile circuits.
Live NASCAR odds show Denny Hamlin and Kyle Larson as the race cofavorites at +450, followed by Ross Chastain (9-1), Chris Buescher (9-1), Tyler Reddick (10-1) and William Byron (10-1) via bet365.
I'm passing on outrights altogether and am instead zeroing in on the top-five market for my best NASCAR bet for Texas.
NASCAR Pick for Texas
*NASCAR odds as of Sunday afternoon
Despite taking zero checkered flags, Martin Truex Jr. has been fast at the traditional 1.5-mile tracks (Las Vegas, Kansas and Charlotte), like Texas, this season.
In these events, Truex has posted the eighth-best driver rating while leading the fifth-most laps and running the sixth-most fast laps.
But remember, this data includes the most recent race at Kansas, where Truex had a flat tire on the first lap, ending his day.
So the loop data above includes a last-place finish in that race and no opportunities to lead or run fast laps.
If we remove the race from two weeks ago, the driver of the No. 19 Toyota is even more impressive.
At the 1.5s with the second Kansas race removed, Truex has the third-best average finish, the best average running position, the fourth-most laps led, the fifth-most fast laps and the second-best driver rating.
I don't hate an outright bet on Truex today at 12-1 – I might add that later today, so be sure to follow me on Twitter (@PJWalsh24) – but I'm going ahead and snagging Truex to score a top-five finish right now, which is available at 2-1 NASCAR odds at bet365.
The bet: Martin Truex Jr. Top-Five Finish (+200 at bet365)
