For the first time in what seems like an eternity, the Cup Series got in full practice and qualifying sessions at a track where they matter when handicapping NASCAR odds for today.
Kansas Speedway, which will host Sunday's AdventHealth 400 (3 p.m. ET, FS1), is a fast, fun, 1.5-mile circuit with a surface that wears tires, making long-run speed key.
More importantly, weather conditions for today's race are expected to be very similar to what drivers experienced in practice yesterday, meaning that Saturday's data can be extremely meaningful when examining NASCAR odds for today's race at Kansas.
NASCAR Picks for Kansas
*NASCAR odds as of Sunday morning
The Toyotas were the best cars in race trim during Saturday's practice sessions, led by Denny Hamlin who topped the chart in five-lap, 10-lap, 15-lap, 20-lap and 25-lap averages.
However, I'm passing on Hamlin and zeroing in on his Joe Gibbs Racing teammate Martin Truex Jr. instead.
Truex ranked fifth in 10-lap average and was right on Hamlin's heels over 15 laps as well.
In addition, last week's winner at Dover qualified third for today's race, meaning he'll have great track position to start the race and a top pit stall as well.
And finally, as the Action Network's Nick Giffen detailed on the Kansas edition of the "Running Hot" podcast, this track correlates very strongly with Las Vegas, a track at which Truex posted the fourth-best driver rating back in early March.
Based on Saturday's on-track activity, it appears that Toyota has made considerable gains on Chevy when it comes to long-run speed at intermediate tracks such as Kansas.
Now, I can't talk you out of Hamlin, Christopher Bell or even Tyler Reddick if you want to go that route.
But when I project a handful of drivers with similar performance, sometimes it's as simple for my little brain as picking the one with the longest NASCAR odds, which is exactly what I'm doing here.
Both Hamlin and Bell are +490 at FanDuel Sportsbook while Truex can be snagged at +750.
Pick: Martin Truex Jr. (+750) |
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