Joey Logano locked himself into the championship race with a win at Kansas Speedway. That race takes place two weekends from now at Phoenix, which means Logano can focus on the finale and not worry about today's race at Texas Motor Speedway.
The right-side tires in use today are the same tires that were used in each of the previous two 1.5-mile races. In fact, the tire package is identical to the second Las Vegas race this year.
Other races which used at least one side of tires the same as this weekend include:
- Las Vegas 1
- Kentucky
- Michigan 1 & 2
With those notes, as well as last weekend's low tire wear speed data, let's dive into two solid picks for today's 500-mile race:
NASCAR at Texas Odds, Betting Picks
Denny Hamlin (+550) to Win at Texas
It's hard for me to put Kevin Harvick ahead of Hamlin, when Hamlin's body of work at 1.5-mile tracks has been better than Harvick this year. Overall, Hamlin has the best average green flag speed at 1.5-mile low wear tracks when we remove major incidents.
At the second Las Vegas and Kansas races, which featured the right-side tires that will be used today, Hamlin led two stages. Chase Elliott also led two stages, but Logano and Kurt Busch were the two winners despite not having the fastest cars.
I believe this will be a race between Elliott, Harvick and Hamlin, but Hamlin has the best combination of relevant performance and odds. Grab him at this line at FanDuel, but if you can only find him at +500 since there's still value there.
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Alex Bowman (+3500) to Win at Texas
Bowman has quite possibly been the most consistent driver at the two races that are using the current right-side tire. His Stage 1 finishes are eighth and sixth places. That improves to fourth and third in Stage 2. At the end of the two races, he finished fifth and third.
On the year, he's been a Top-5 driver in overall average green flag speed at low-wear, 1.5-mile tracks.
Even if he's "only" a Top-8 driver, his 12th-best price at BetMGM is a nice value. I'd bet him down to 22-1.
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