Celtics vs. Cavaliers Prediction
| Celtics Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-8.5 -110 | 206 -110o / -110u | -340 |
| Cavaliers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+8.5 -110 | 206 -110o / -110u | +270 |
Here's everything you need to know about Celtics vs. Cavaliers on Monday, May 13 — our expert prediction and betting picks for today's game.
There was nothing surprising about the Boston Celtics' Game 3 win over the Cavs. The Celtics shot 51%, the Cavaliers shot 43%. The Celtics shot 60% on 2-point attempts, the Cavs shot 50%. The Celtics had edges in points in the paint, second-chance points, fastbreak points and points off turnovers… but they were all negligible. Boston didn't dominate inside or get dominant performances from Jayson Tatum or Jaylen Brown (though both were very good), nor did they dominate from the 3-point arc (hitting just one more 3 than Cleveland) or have a huge edge from the line (two more FTM).
It was just a win. That's it.
Their defense was good, limiting the Cavaliers to a 104.5 offensive rating, and their offense was good, scoring 120 points per 100 possessions. It wasn't death by a thousand cuts — more like 10 fairly deep, but not gouging cuts.
Now, with Donovan Mitchell and the Cavs facing a 3-1 deficit at home, will the Celtics simply prove to be the better team, or will the Cavs dig back into the series headed back to Boston? Let's take a look at my Celtics vs. Cavs Game 4 prediction.
Boston Celtics
Kristaps Porziņģis remains out for the Celtics.
Tatum scored 33 for the Celtics in Game 3. He shot 5-of-9 in the first quarter and then went 6-of-16 the rest of the way.
The weird part? He shot 4-of-11 vs. Darius Garland and Mitchell, who should be the easier targets. After the Cavaliers started switching everything in Game 2, Tatum sought to target those switches and attack the weaker defenders, but didn't do as well as he did vs. Evan Mobley, the best defender on Cleveland. The strategy is working on Tatum.
But Brown stepped up and the Cavs' offense fell apart. Brown tore up the Cavaliers' defensive coverages whether it was switch or shows like this one.
Caris LeVert, Max Strus and Isaac Okoro got cooked by Brown; he shot 9-of-12 vs. those players, the better defenders for the Cavs.
The Celtics are still a jump-shooting squad, but they attacked the rim well in Game 3 without Jarrett Allen. Switching meant the Cavs could stay in front of the Celtics to prevent wide open 3s, but Boston then got downhill without more rim protection. Brown had 20 points in the paint, Tatum had 14.
Allen helps with that if he finally returns in Game 4, but it's a challenge for the Cavaliers without him, and Boston's adjustment there has been great.
Derrick White and Brown have Garland in hell.
Cleveland Cavaliers
The Cavaliers need Allen back. That's step one. It makes the defensive switching more difficult, but it helps with the rim protection.
Step two is more Dean Wade, who was +12, can shoot and can defend. The offense was non-existent with Okoro on the floor. You cannot give the Celtics guys they can leave open. The rotation has to tighten, Wade has to play more off an injury and the Cavaliers have to hit shots.
Garland is not going to hit shots. We're at the point of having to just accept that. Garland has gone under his points plus assists line in every game in this series and in seven of the 10 playoff games for Cleveland.
It's going to have to be Mitchell, Mobley (who seems to be stepping up), Strus, and LeVert (and hopefully Allen if he returns). That's just going to have to be it, because at this point you can't count on Garland. If Okoro shoots and hits, you can play him until he stops, but the rotation has to be tight.
One concern: If Allen plays, the Cavaliers are likely to go back to playing two at the level in pick and rolls. That's not as bad because the Celtics play so much isolation basketball, but when they do, it'll create collapses inside that result in open 3s, and Boston's going to win that matchup every time.
Celtics vs. Cavaliers
Betting Pick & Prediction
Here's a trend: Teams that are at home after losing Game 3 and have won one game in the series on the road are 37-29-1 ATS (55%) ATS.
Home 'dogs in that spot are 7-6 SU, 7-6 ATS. If the Cavs lose, that trend falls even. But it does lead to the idea that teams who have at least gotten one are able to battle back when facing a 3-1 deficit.
The Celtics are 9-7 SU and 8-8 ATS after winning and covering the previous game under Joe Mazzulla. Those numbers are boosted by the Heat without Jimmy Butler in the first round.
If you like the Cavaliers, you like the Under, because it's unlikely they bomb from 3 like Miami did in its Game 2 win. They need to win this one with defense; Boston is 4-10 ATS in the playoffs when it hits fewer than 15 3s under Mazzulla. The Celtics are 9-2 under Mazzulla when they hit more than 15 3s.
So Celtics and the Over, Cavs and the Under. I think the Cavaliers handle their rotations and interior defense better and finally hit some 3s to keep the season alive. I'll play Cavaliers +8 and sprinkle the moneyline, with a Cavs ML and Under small same-game parlay.
I will also play the under on Darius Garland points and assists at 21.5.
Picks:
- Cavaliers +8
- Cavaliers ML
- Cavaliers ML + Under SGP (+208)
- Darius Garland Under 21.5 Points + Assists
