In a word: Wow.
Portland Trail Blazers guard Damian Lillard is headed to the Milwaukee Bucks to form a new partnership with Giannis Antetokounmpo. But what does it mean for the Bucks, the Blazers and Heat? And how should you approach betting the future markets in the wake of the mega-deal?
The Blazers send Lillard to Milwaukee in a three-team deal that sees Jusuf Nurkic, Grayson Allen, and young prospects go to Phoenix, draft compensation including a first round pick, multiple Milwaukee draft pick swaps along with Jrue Holiday and Deandre Ayton to Portland.
Now Holiday heads to Portland, but league sources expect Holiday to be moved to a contender as part of Portland's rebuild around No.3 overall pick Scoot Henderson in the coming months, if not weeks.
So what does this mean for the three teams? Here are some takeaways beyond the obvious for you to know about the monster Damian Lillard trade, and how to bet it.
What the Damian Lillard Trade Means for the Bucks, Blazers and More
MILWAUKEE BUCKS
The Bucks instantly moved from +850 to +400 at DraftKings to win the 2024 NBA Finals. There are two conversations and they're separate. The basketball side and the betting side.
The basketball side is relatively straightforward: it's a significant upgrade in key areas that compensates for the downgrade in certain areas. Dame is not a good offensive player, he is an elite offensive player even at age 33.
Last season, Dame was the No.1 player in offensive Estimated Plus Minus and sixth in the league in estimated wins added, per DunksAndThrees.com. He's a three-level scorer with excellent playmaking abilities and unlimited range.
The Bucks have consistently struggled in the postseason with making timely shots, particularly to stem the tide of opponent runs. They now add one of the most clutch scorers in the last decade who can space the floor to half court.
The combination of Giannis and Dame will likely take some time to adjust to, but once it clicks, it's likely to be terrifying. When Giannis isolates vs. smaller defenders, forcing help inside, Lillard can play off-ball, ready to fire. When Giannis faces tougher matchups of layered defense as he routinely sees, Lillard can attack those matchups.
Finding teams that can ably defend Giannis' athleticism and Lillard's scoring capacity is an extremely short list.
As part of this analysis, it's important to note that league sources had indicated a level of frustration from Giannis in how much of the team he was being asked to carry last season, especially with Khris Middleton still missing time. Now that's been alleviated.
Don't dismiss how much of this deal was not just to try and win a title right now, which it does greatly improve Milwaukee's odds of, but to help ensure Antetokounmpo stays a Buck for as long as possible.
There are still concerns here; the Bucks have Dame (age 33), Khris Middleton (32), and Brook Lopez (35) in the starting unit. Their depth has been decimated both in this trade and free agency over the summer (Jevon Carter). A rotation for the Bucks looks like:
Dame — Ty Ty Washington
Pat Connaughton — Malik Beasley
Khris Middleton — Jae Crowder — MarJon Beauchamp
Giannis Antetokounmpo — Bobby Portis — Crowder
Brook Lopez — Robin Lopez
You can throw some young guys like Andre Jackson and others in, depending on how they work out.
The starting unit will still be one of the best in basketball, but when one of them misses time, there will be substantial drop offs. Managing the regular season will be tough because of that, especially with NBA initiatives to curb resting this season.
But ultimately you take the core of a team that won the title in 2021 and added one of the best offensive players in the NBA. That's a win.
Now for the betting side, there's always value in fading these aggressive moves in the wake of big trades. They are typically overreactions and this is no exception. I have upgraded the Bucks considerably from their starting point. I have them at 53 wins after the trade, which you'll note is still under the 55.5 their market win total sits at.
They are also the current favorite, and I think this moves them to equal standing with the Boston Celtics in the Eastern Conference, not above. That inherently adds value to Boston who slid to +490 in title markets.
Now is not the time to bet the Bucks, as you'll have runway during the season when there's an injury. If you're taking longterm, multi-bet positions, Boston is the best play but typically you'll find better value closer to the playoffs beginning in… six months. That's a long time to tie up your money on either of these teams, but the market has overreacted to the Lillard addition, as good as it is.
PORTLAND TRAIL BLAZERS
It's a fascinating move for Portland, who effectively chose what is at best only a slightly better deal and at worst only a slightly worse deal. League sources confirmed that Miami was never given a chance to counter-offer the Bucks offer and that Portland and Miami had not had significant discussions over the past few weeks.
There's a lot to discuss as far as how that came to be the case, but in the aftermath, the deal is presented from Portland's side as worth it because of:
- The value of a former No.1 overall pick in Ayton, who, even as a diminished asset on a big contract, has long-term upside and has performed in the postseason at a young age.
The pick swaps from the Bucks closer to 2030 when Dame may very well be retired and Giannis may have moved on, making those extremely valuable.
The conceptual value of what Jrue Holiday will return in a subsequent trade.
We can argue the relative value compared to the Miami (theoretical) offers, but this is what Portland wound up with.
The Blazers' win total is a little low given the talent on the team. Teams with a rookie point guard don't excel, but the Blazers have Scoot with a legit pick-and-roll big man in Ayton, shooting with Anfernee Simons, and whatever the Jrue Holiday trade returns.
I don't know that I want to bet it given the likelihood they'll shift to focusing on draft position, but there's a possibility this team is decent, which would give Deandre Ayton Most Improved Player value if they can get to 30 or more wins. That's a stretch, but at 100-1, it's worth consideration.
Portland is beginning a true rebuild, and more trades are likely. Don't count on most non-Scoot, non-Ayton players being on roster by the end of the year because things will be fluid.
Scoot Henderson Rookie of the Year +300, however, may be the single best bet on the board in the aftermath of this deal.
PHOENIX SUNS
I was surprised to see the market upgrade the Suns' win total from 50.5 to 52.5 in the aftermath of the deal. The Suns turned Ayton into two rotation players in Jusuf Nurkic and Grayson Allen, but Nurkic is a significant downgrade for Ayton.
Nurkic struggles with drop coverage and hasn't played more than 56 games since 2019. He is foul prone in big matchups and struggles in switch coverage vs. smaller players.
Allen is a great shooter but also a player who Milwaukee has struggled to keep on the floor in the postseason.
I have the Suns projected at 47 wins after the trade, significantly lower than the market number, making that a play for me. They'll still be an elite team, but this was a move in the directional opposite of how the market interpreted it.
Ultimately, the NBA will never be the same after the deal. Teams that were hoping to be in the mix for Giannis Antetokounmpo are disappointed in the aftermath, as the chances he asks out have plummeted, barring a total failure by this team-up. Miami is left trying to piece together a roster after banking on this deal, Portland hands its future over to Scoot, and there are more deals on the horizon.
The NBA is a sport perfectly made for a constantly evolving market, with radical changes shifting the landscape. Dame and Giannis are set to disrupt the NBA ecosystem again.
