There may finally be a runaway candidate for the top pick in Thursday night's NBA Draft — and it appears to be the player many predicted this whole time.
For much of the buildup, Auburn forward Jabari Smith has been the consensus betting favorite and No. 1 pick in mock drafts across the board. But recent steam on Duke forward Paolo Banchero put Smith's status as the top choice in doubt.
Early in the process, Smith was around even money before settling around -200. That flipped early Thursday morning when Banchero became the -200 favorite with Smith dropping to +145.
All it took was a Thursday morning tweet from ESPN's Adrian Wojnarowski to change everything … again.
Still, the market continues to move.
Smith was -10000 (bet $1000, profit $100) to be the first pick in the NBA Draft. That slid to -6000, then -2100, then -1600.
Meanwhile, PointsBet posted -476 on Smith.
Here are the latest, ever-changing odds to be the No. 1 pick.
Updated NBA Draft Top Pick Odds
*Odds updated as of Thursday at 7:50 p.m. ET and via FanDuel
| Player | Odds |
|---|---|
| Paolo Banchero | -260 |
| Jabari Smith | +170 |
| Chet Holmgren | +2300 |
7:50 p.m. ET: Draft odds have taken another wild turn as Banchero is the new favorite to go No. 1 following a Wojnarowski Tweet.
At FanDuel, he's a -260 favorite, at DraftKings Banchero is -200 and the wager isn't even on the board at PointsBet.
You can find the Tweet below.
The Magic have kept their final decision tight, but Banchero has emerged as a significant possibility to be drafted No. 1 overall, sources said. https://t.co/Vi3iPSMAsG
— Adrian Wojnarowski (@wojespn) June 23, 2022
7:30 p.m. ET: We're a half hour away from draft time and it appears oddsmakers believe they know who will go first.
Smith is a consensus -550 or shorter favorite at most major sportsbooks, with Banchero anywhere from +300 to +500.
Holmgren appears to be an afterthought at this point, with his odds at +1600 or longer.
6:35 p.m. ET: It appears we have some separation in the odds.
We've seen odds move in funky ways all day, but Smith is pulling away by the minute.
He's -650 at FanDuel to be the first player taken in the draft, and at DraftKings he's up to -750.
5:47 p.m. ET: As we've gotten deeper into the day, Smith is establishing a stronger grip on the market once again.
He's -300 or shorter at FanDuel, PointsBet and DraftKings to be the first player taken in the draft.
4:30 p.m. ET: Odds have remained steady as we're now 3.5 hours away from draft time.
At FanDuel, you can get Smith as the first pick of the draft at -280. Banchero is +200 while Holmgren is +2300.
3:24 p.m. ET: Once again, we're reaching a bit of a stable position with the odds.
Smith is between -260 and -350 at FanDuel, PointsBet and DraftKings, and Banchero is between +190 and +200 at each. Holmgren checks in between +1600 and +2200.
We'll see if that holds.
2:41 p.m. ET: Odds movement has tapered down slightly, at least for the time being.
Smith's odds to go first overall are -260 at FanDuel, -350 at DraftKings and -210 at PointsBet.
Banchero is listed at +195, +200 and +150 at the respective books.
2:11 p.m. ET: We're now at a point where books are offering significantly different odds.
You can find Smith at -191 to be the first player off the board at PointsBet, but at DraftKings he remains at -400. FanDuel has split the difference with a -260 number.
1:41 p.m. ET: Perhaps we've reached a consensus?
Smith is now a -480 favorite at FanDuel to be the first pick. He's a -500 favorite at DraftKings and a -325 favorite at PointsBet.
1:17 p.m. ET: The ever-changing odds on the top pick continued to see wild shifts as Smith fell to even money before jumping all the way back up to -390.
Banchero was briefly at +100, but he's swiftly been moved back to +240.
12:48 p.m. ET: Here we go!
Smith's odds to be the top overall pick in tonight's NBA Draft continue to shorten.
After sitting at -351 late on Thursday morning, Smith is now -175 to be the No. 1 pick, with Banchero sitting at +110.
11:30 a.m. ET: DraftKings has pulled all markets for the top three picks following Wojnarowski's tweet shown above.
PointsBet finally made a move on Smith, shortening him even more to -351.
FanDuel has continued to creep down in the last hour.
