The 2022 NBA Finals heads to TD Garden with the Golden State Warriors and Boston Celtics tied 1-1.
Writers Brandon Anderson and Joe Dellera made 10 pre-series prop bets ahead of the Finals and some look better than others with a few potential buy-low/sell-high opportunities.
As a quick recap, they were spot on about these teams shooting a ton of 3s.
36 and 34 made 3s so far for Boston and Golden State.
Both on pace for 100+ if it goes at least 6 games, both of which would shatter the all-time Finals record for a series.
📈 +450
— Brandon Anderson (@wheatonbrando) June 6, 2022
The Celtics have made 36-of-78 3-pointers while the Warriors have made 34-of-82. Both are well on pace to break the record for treys in an NBA Finals with, especially now that we know we will see at least five games in this series.
The Celtics currently need 59 while the Warriors need 61. That’s roughly 20, 15 and 12 made 3s per game by either team if this goes 5, 6, or 7, respectively. This bet dropped to +175 after Game 1 and is now off the board.
They also discussed Andrew Wiggins making at least one 3-pointer in every game at (+240), those odds have now moved to (-105). If you bet this, great! If you missed the boat, I would pass on it now. This series likely goes six games and using the rough parlay odds there is no value based on the implied odds.
Below they revisit some of their other props and discuss the bets that have their attention ahead of Game 3. (Be sure to follow both Joe and Brandon on Twitter and in the Action app for more angles and bets before tip off.)
Can Jayson Tatum Continue to Run the Offense?
Prior to the start of the finals, we gave you Tatum over 4.8 assists per game (-110) and him to lead the series in APG (+650). Those numbers are currently over 6.2 (-110 DK) and (+120 FD) respectively.
Tatum currently leads the series in assists with 16 after a monster Game 1 performance. One thing to note about Tatum’s assists, though, is he has significant win/loss splits this postseason; in wins, he averages 7.3 assists and in losses he averages just 4.3. Boston is favored in Game 3 and has yet to lose consecutive games during this postseason, so if it’s a Boston win, then we should see Tatum improve on his assists total.
However, I’m actively looking for an opportunity to hedge the series assists leader bet with Draymond Green who is just four assists behind Tatum with 12 total. He leads the series in Passes per Game 53.5, according to NBA Advanced Stats, and is second to Tatum in Potential Assists per Game with 9.0.
Draymond is (+130 FanDuel) for APG and (+145 BetMGM) for total assists leader. He’s the engine of the Warriors’ offense and considering the price we got for Tatum, there may be a spot to hedge.
If you think Boston wins Game 3, then you should also expect more assists from Tatum in Game 3 — as a result, you should hedge prior to Game 4. If you’re expecting a Warriors win in Game 3, then now may be a chance to buy into Draymond Green.
Lean: Draymond Green Assists Leader
Will Stephen Curry Keep Cooking?
Prior to Game 2 I tweeted that I added another series prop.
I’ve added another Series Prop.
Steph Curry u30.5 points (-136 FD)
Curry dropped 34 in Game 1 so he has a bit of a head start here but after scoring 21 in the 1Q he managed just 13 the rest of the game. He can still score, but even a 26 point game puts us in the green here.
— Joe Dellera (@JoeDellera) June 5, 2022
Curry under 30.5 points per game (-136 FanDuel). Firstly, there’s a discrepancy in the market because FanDuel lists this at 30.5 while DraftKings has under 29.9 at (-115). Those extra decimals matter and it’s worth the extra 21 cents.
Secondly, Curry is outpacing this mark by a point per game — he’s scored 34 and 29, for an average of 31.5 points. However, in the playoffs as a whole, Curry is averaging 26.6 points per game and has only cleared that 30.5 point mark in 6-of-18 games.
While he started off strong in Game 1, the Celtics stopped dropping on Curry and giving him space under the screen. Boston did this immediately after that electrifying 21 point 1Q in Game 1 and limited Curry to just 13 points over the remaining three frames.
That should make it more difficult for Curry to score unless they decide to spam the Celtics with pick and rolls, but that’s not a traditional part of their offense.
If Curry is going to average more than 30.5 points per game, he needs to score the following number of points:
5 Games: 153
6 Games: 183
7 games 214
Based on the points he has already scored, he needs to average the following to outpace that:
5 Games: 29.83
6 Games: 30
7 games 30.1
Considering how good this Boston defense is and how the Pace and totals generally grind to a halt as the series progresses, I struggle to see Curry consistently scoring in the 30s, especially when the books are setting his prop line at 28.5 on a nightly basis.
The Bet: Curry under 30.5 PPG (-136 FanDuel)
Where is the Klay Thompson?
Thompson has struggled so far during this series. He’s scored just 26 points through two games on 30.3% shooting including 26.7% from 3-point range.
What’s interesting though is Steve Kerr is desperately trying to get Thompson going. This was evident when he left Thompson in late in the fourth quarter of Game 2 when it was clearly a blowout.
So what’s the play? Well, once again we have a discrepancy in the market. His series line is set at over 16.5 PPG (-113) at FanDuel while it is at 17.3 PPG on DraftKings.
At 16.5, he is seven points off the pace, which is nothing for a microwave scorer such as Thompson. The key here is volume. Thompson is not someone who is going to come off the floor for the Warriors — he is not a Steven Adams or even a Robert Williams. He is going to play and he will see volume. He’s taken 14 and 19 shots from the floor including 7 and 8 3s – they simply are not falling.
If Thompson is to average more than 16.5 points per game, he needs to score the following number of points:
5 Games: 82.5
6 Games: 99
7 games 115.5
Based on the points he has already scored, he needs to average the following to outpace that:
5 Games: 18.83
6 Games: 18.25
7 games 17.9
He is a bit different from Curry because his peaks are significant departures from his average performance. While Curry has a PPG average in the mid/upper 20s, Thompson’s is at 19.1 for the entire playoffs and 19.9 when viewing the entire season.
In other words, when he goes over these averages, he generally goes way over and he’s had one 30-point game in each series. Rather than guessing when Thompson gets that inevitable 30-point explosion, we can take his over 16.5 points on the series in a buy-low spot.
Additionally, since we anticipate that breakout games, he should close the gap on the series 3s leader. We already can see Golden State’s commitment to the 3 ball with their 30 makes on 84 attempts and there’s no reason to see this not continuing.
Thompson is currently eight treys behind Curry, but at 40-1 odds, it’s certainly worth a sprinkle considering how we project a bit fewer points from Curry as the defense keys in on him moving forward.
The Bet: Thompson Over 16.5 PPG (-113 FanDuel) | Thompson to lead series in 3s (+4000)
