It's only been one week in the Association but we have so much new information to work with for the week ahead. While we won't see any more 1.5 Turnover lines for Victor Wembanyama, let's try to find a couple new gems this week.
NBA Player Props Betting Forecast
Is LeBron James even on a minutes limit?
Schedule: Oct. 30 vs. Magic | Nov. 1 vs. Clippers | Nov. 4 at Magic
Coach Darvin Ham made waves when he indicated that LeBron James would likely see about 30 minutes per night compared to the 35 he has seen nearly every year in his career. Since those comments, LeBron has played 35 and 39 minutes and it seems as if those words by Coach Ham were just that, words. LeBron is averaging 23 points, 10.3 rebounds, and 7.3 assists in 34.3 minutes per game. He has recorded 8+ rebounds in every game but he's also turned the ball over 0, 5, and 8 times in these three games. The usage is clearly still there.
LeBron and the Lakers will be in an interesting spot on Monday night against the Orlando Magic. It is the second game of a back to back set and we will have to see if he pops up with a phantom injury or is out for rest. Last season, LeBron played in six games with zero rest and averaged an impressive 34 points, 8.8 rebounds, and 7.2 assists. If he's out, the Usage would normally go to Anthony Davis; however, AD only played in 2 back to back games last season. At LeBron's age, it's a bit unfortunate that he's needed to shoulder this type of volume.
Given the back-to-back set on Monday, it would not be overly surprising to see one or both of LeBron and Davis sit out. Granted, they are not traveling particularly far (Sacramento to LA). The most natural beneficiary would be Davis if LeBron sits, he averaged 27.5 ppg last season in that spot. Austin Reaves is another player that could step up as a capable scoring threat and facilitator despite his early season struggles. In his last 10 games without LeBron, Reaves averaged 18.9 ppg, 6.4 apg, and 3.8 rpg. I will immediately target Reaves' assists prop or PA if it is set at 4.5 or under 20, respectively.
Taureen Prince is another player to keep an eye on regardless of LeBron or Davis' status. Prince just dropped 20 points against the Kings on a blistering 5/13 from 3 point range. He has quite literally been an all or nothing player, scoring zero against Phoenix but then 18 against the Nuggets. His 3 point prop was 1.5 (+105) on Sunday, a number he has cleared in 7 of his last 10 games when playing 15+ minutes.
Detroit's Big Rebound
Schedule: Oct. 30 at Thunder | Nov. 1 vs. Trail Blazers | Nov. 2 at Pelicans
The Detroit Pistons have been absolutely dominant on the glass so far this season. As a team, they lead the league in Rebounds % (56.9%), per NBA Advanced Stats. They have been quite the surprise this season but their length has provided them with the second most 2nd Chance Points per game (18.7) and this can create quite the edge for them in close games.
The team is led by a trio of double digit rebounders. Jalen Duren is averaging an absurd 15.3 rpg, rookie Ausar Thompson is at 10.7, and Isaiah "Beef Stew" Stewart is averaging 10.0. Duren has lead the way, grabbing 15, 17, and 14; Ausar has secured 7, 13, and 12; Stewart has 14, 7, and 9. The players who should have the best chances to sustain those numbers are Duren and Ausar. Duren is averaging a preposterous 24.3 Rebound Chances per game while Ausar is at 16.0. Both of their prop lines are playable on Monday at 12.5 and 7.5 respectively. Stewart is only seeing 13.3 Rebound Chances per game so he's likely due to experience some regression.
The Pistons' schedule sets up well for this. They play the Thunder, Blazers, Pelicans, Suns, and Warriors in their next 5 games. Phoenix is surprisingly a decent rebounding team so far this season, but I do not expect that to hold. Moreover, all five of those teams play at a faster Pace than the Pistons. There should be plenty of opportunities to crash the glass this week. The one matchup that may be more difficult for Duren would be against Zion and Valanciunas in New Orleans; however, in their one matchup last year Duren grabbed 13 boards off the bench in 27 minutes.
Can the Kings survive a Fox injury?
Schedule: Nov. 1 at Warriors | Nov. 4 at Rockets | Nov. 6 at Rockets
De'Aaron Fox lead the Kings to an overtime victory against the Lakers with an impressive 37 points and 8 assist performance. However, it's not all good news. Fox turned his left ankle while planting on Gabe Vincent's foot during the game, exited for a bit, but then returned to the game but was unable to finish. To make matters worse, after the game it was reported that he needed assistance getting off the court.
I'm not a doctor, but it certainly did not look good and those injuries tend to swell in the days after the game. The Kings' next game is not until Wednesday against the Warriors, so it may be a few days until we get an update; however, with the next three games being against the Rockets on Saturday and Monday, then the Blazers next Wednesday, it would not surprise me to see Fox back at the earliest against the Thunder on Friday November 10.
How do they replace Fox's production? It's nearly impossible. Of note, Domantas Sabonis sees almost zero change in his stats without Fox besides a modest increase in his rebounding average to 13.5 rpg. This will take multiple players to make up for Fox if he does indeed miss.
Last season, when Fox missed, Davion Mitchell saw his minutes jump from 16.6 t0 28.8 per game and he scored 9.2 points and dished 4.0 assists per game. On Sunday, when Fox could not play to close the game, the Kings played a lineup of Harrison Barnes, Malik Monk, Keegan Murray, Kevin Huerter, and Javale McGee (Sabonis had fouled out). It's unclear if Monk would slot into the starting lineup if Fox misses time, but due to his bench scoring role he actually scored fewer points per game without Fox to set him up.
The player that saw the largest leap in his role without Fox was Kevin Huerter. He saw his points increase from 14.3 ppg to 19.5 ppg while taking 4.1 more FGAs per game. I will be looking to back Kevin Huerter on Wednesday if Fox ultimately is ruled out.
One other player that may see an expanded role is Sasha Vezenkov. He's an excellent scorer and is averaging 9.7 ppg in just 15.4 minutes. If he sees his minutes climb into the 20s he should easily score in the double digits.
Finally, Fox has generally played with Pace, it would not be a surprise to see the Kings' offense slow down when Fox is not playing. At the time of this writing, the Kings have the 6th fastest Pace in the league (104.05) and when that likely slows down, it would impact both the Kings' player props and their opponents'.
