Prop bets can be a great way to get action on a game. Bookmakers don’t have to worry about taking a lot of action on them, so there isn’t as great an incentive to post a competitive line.
As a result, props can be some of the most exploitable bets on the board.
These props can become downright unfair when you combine them with the FantasyLabs Player Prop tool.
Friday’s best NBA props focus on four of the slate’s seven games:
- Charlotte Hornets vs. Chicago Bulls: 7 p.m. ET
- Toronto Raptors vs. Dallas Mavericks: 7:30 p.m. ET
- Houston Rockets vs. Los Angeles Clippers: 8 p.m. ET
- New Orleans Pelicans vs. Brooklyn Nets: 8 p.m. ET
Let’s dive right in.
Bulls PF Jabari Parker
The Pick: Over 18.5 points (-105)
The Bulls are currently decimated by injuries, with Kris Dunn, Bobby Portis and Lauri Markkanen all sidelined for the foreseeable future.
That should result in an increased role for Parker, who can still put the ball in the basket despite undergoing two major surgeries on his left knee.
He’s averaged 20.4 points per 36 minutes through his first four games and is currently projected for 31 minutes vs. the Charlotte Hornets in our FantasyLabs Models. And because of the Bulls’ injury situation, he should also improve upon his usage rate of 25.2% to begin the season.
Parker is not someone I would want playing big minutes for my team, but the Bulls really have no other choice today. I would play the over on this prop up to -150.
Mavericks SG Wesley Matthews
The Pick: Under 17.5 points (-115)
Matthews has started the season red-hot for the Mavericks, pouring in an average of 19.3 points per game. That said, he’s almost certainly due for some regression.
He’s yet to average more than 13.5 points per game for Dallas over the course of a full season, and he’s averaging approximately the same amount of minutes through his first four games of the season.
What has changed is his usage rate: His current mark of 23.0% is the highest of his 10-year career. He’s been one of the primary beneficiaries with Harrison Barnes out of the lineup to start the season, but Barnes is set to make his return on today’s slate.
It’s time to sell high on Matthews. I’d play the under here up to -140.
Rockets SG Eric Gordon
The Pick: Over 20.5 points (-114)
The Rockets are going to be without last year’s MVP James Harden for at least the next two games, which should result in a larger role for Gordon.
He saw a usage increase of +4.7% with Harden off the floor last season, resulting in an average of 24.8 points per 36 minutes.
Gordon also averaged just under 33 minutes per game in nine contests with Harden out of the lineup, and he’s currently projected for 36 in our FantasyLabs NBA Models.
Gordon struggled to just 11 points on 5-of-21 shooting in his most recent game vs. Utah, but his usage and playing time (just shy of 40 minutes) were encouraging.
He should have a slightly easier go of things today vs. the Los Angeles Clippers.
Pelicans PG/SG Jrue Holiday
The Pick: Over 15.5 points (-115)
Holiday has started the season slowly, averaging just 11.0 points per game, but he seems due for some positive regression.
While he’s still seeing plenty of minutes, he has shot just 31.6% from the field and has yet to make a 3-pointer. He shot better than 49% from the field last season, so he’s way too talented to keep struggling like this.
His current matchup vs. the Nets could be a good one for his scoring prospects. They were among the worst teams in the league in terms of defensive efficiency last season, and his individual matchup against Caris LeVert is a good one:
LeVert ranked just 66th out of 89 qualifiers at SG in Defensive Real Plus/Minus last season.
The Pelicans have the highest implied team total of the day and are playing at the fourth-fastest pace to start the season, so I’m not expecting Holiday’s struggles to continue for long. I like the over here up to -160.
