Updated Win Total Bets for Eastern Conference Lottery Teams
It's an ideal time to check back in on the NBA futures market. I am diving back into regular-season win totals and will be going through every team over the next few days to determine the best plays on NBA win totals for the rest of the season.
This is also very important analysis for anyone with pending win total tickets. I highly encourage you to check the team you already bet and look for a possibility to either middle or double down.
The fifth batch of teams in this series consists of the lottery-bound teams from the Eastern Conference — the Brooklyn Nets, Toronto Raptors, Charlotte Hornets, Washington Wizards and Detroit Pistons. Let’s dive in.
Brooklyn Nets
- Preseason Win Total: 37.5 (-110)
- Current Record: 21-33
- Win Total Pace: 32-50
- Current Odds: 34.5 (O+112, U-140)
- Strength of Schedule: Second Easiest
Plan of Action: Priced Out
The oddsmakers are expecting the Nets to make a small improvement down the stretch. Could it be because Kevin Ollie gives them an interim coach bump? Could it be because they were rumored to be sellers at the deadline and did not give up major players? Could it be because they have the second-easiest remaining schedule? Could it be because they do not control their own pick, so they have no incentive to tank?
Regardless of the reason, I'm not interested in betting their win total to go over at three wins above their pace at +112. I'm also not interested in paying steep under odds at -140. Pass.
Toronto Raptors
- Preseason Win Total: 36.5 (O-115, U-105)
- Current Record: 19-36
- Win Total Pace: 28-54
- Current Odds: 29.5 (-115)
- Strength of Schedule: Ninth Easiest
Plan of Action: Understand Team Context
When evaluating what the Raptors might do down the stretch, it's important to note they have a head coach who is known for development with a young roster that may click. Although they sent out top-end talent in Pascal Siakam and OG Anunoby, they opted not to bottom out and still acquired some rotation players at the deadline.
The Raptors owe the Spurs a pick that is top-seven protected. In a down draft, expect the Raptors to want to stay afloat, surrender the pick to pay off their debt and just move on. They will want to win. The coach will want to make his mark and the players will want to prove their worth. Expect effort, but I'm uncertain about the results.
Charlotte Hornets
- Preseason Win Total: 31.5 (O+100, U-120)
- Current Record: 13-41
- Win Total Pace: 20-62
- Current Odds: 19.5 (O+100, U-125)
- Strength of Schedule: Fifth Hardest
Plan of Action: Stuck In Purgatory
Bettors who want action on the Hornets are a bit stuck. The Hornets have been frustrating with their reporting of injuries, specifically with starters Mark Williams and LaMelo Ball. If I was confident they were going to return soon, I would bet the over.
However, with the level of uncertainty surrounding their injuries, I have to pass. Brandon Miller and Miles Bridges are playing great basketball, and if they get complementary pieces back, it will be a good time to back them.
Washington Wizards
- Preseason Win Total: 24.5 (-110)
- Current Record: 9-45
- Win Total Pace: 14-68
- Current Odds: 16.5 (O+100, U-140)
- Strength of Schedule: 11th Hardest
Plan of Action: Priced Out
Here is another clear situation where I would opt for the under, but a -140 vig on a two-month future is just not enough value to tie up the bankroll.
The Wizards have been incredibly difficult to figure out this season. They have some veterans on the team, but can never string together consistent play. I expected this season's Wizards to resemble last season's Jazz, where a bunch of players who were told they were outcasts banded together and played hard basketball with good coaching.
That hasn't come to fruition this year. The coach is gone, the players have undefined roles and the losses keep piling up.
Detroit Pistons
Preseason Win Total: 27.5 (O-115, U-105)
Current Record: 8-46
Win Total Pace: 12-70
Current Odds: 13.5 (O-150, U+115)
Strength of Schedule: 13th Hardest
Plan of Action: Keep Fading Detroit
I am inclined to put a little action down on a plus-money under when the win total is 1.5 wins above expected pace with a semi-difficult schedule. If we have the opportunity to continue to fade the Pistons, we shouldn’t overthink it.
Despite what the organization has said about wanting to turn this season around, there hasn't been improvement on the court. The Pistons traded more vets and will rely on youth. They're also short on shooting, so I'm making a small play on the under.
