Game 1 of the Western Conference Finals between the Minnesota Timberwolves and Dallas Mavericks will tip off at 8:30 p.m. ET on TNT, Wednesday night.
Keep reading below for my NBA first basket prop picks for Timberwolves vs Mavericks on Wednesday, May 22.
Anthony Edwards First Field Goal (+600 DraftKings) & First Basket Exact Other (+1700 FanDuel)
Rudy Gobert and Daniel Gafford struggled mightily to win tipoffs this season, but Minnesota holds the slight edge here.
Once Dallas transformed their roster at the trade deadline, it surrendered the second lowest field goal percentage in the paint. Opponents were able to find decent in-between shots though, as the Mavericks allowed the sixth most mid-range attempts per game, including the third most in the first-quarter.
Anthony Edwards has taken 43 mid-range shots this postseason, which is nearly three times more than Minnesota’s next best player. His ability to create and hit tough shots will be huge against Dallas’ stingy defense, and I expect him to be aggressive early.
Additionally, Gobert is an elite screener that can create space for Edwards. If Minnesota opens up the game with a high ball screen, then the pull-up 3 may be clean for Edwards with Gafford sitting back. He owns a 53 eFG% on pull-up jumpers this postseason, so the efficiency has been there too.
I would play Edwards first field goal at 0.5u and Edwards first basket exact other at 0.3u.
As a side note for those who do not know, “other” is classified as any 2pt shot that’s not a dunk or layup.
Jaden McDaniels First Timberwolves Basket (+500 FanDuel)
McDaniels has taken Minnesota’s first shot in 4-of-11 games this postseason, or 36% of the time. With Dallas likely assigning Doncic to mark him, McDaniels can take advantage of Doncic’s off-ball lapses for a quick cut or catch-and-shoot attempt. He also has the capability to knock down a pull-up jumper from inside the arc, which bodes well against Dallas’ defense.
Overall, his +500 odds have an implied probability of 16.6%, which is a steal based on his first basket usage and likely matchup.
I recommend playing this line at 1u.
