Air Force vs UNLV Odds
| Air Force Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+11.5 -115 | 131.5 -110o / -110u | +525 |
| UNLV Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-11.5 -105 | 131.5 -110o / -110u | -750 |
The UNLV Rebels are quickly becoming a thorn in the side of Mountain West teams. They already defeated a pair of NCAA tournament-level squads and should've beaten a few more, if not for their late-game mishaps.
On Tuesday, UNLV will enter as significant favorites against the Mountain West Conference's bottom-feeder.
Air Force Falcons
Air Force started the season strong at 7-2 in the non-conference slate. Since then, the Falcons have lost eight consecutive games, including five straight against Mountain West foes. While UNLV trends in the green direction, Air Force is floating into the red.
The Falcons utilize plenty Princeton elements under head coach Joe Scott, who hails from the Tigers' tree under legendary coach Pete Carril. The Falcons' offense is effective if the perimeter shots fall. Air Force is a high-volume shooting team, attempting 3s on 44% of its field goals.
Additionally, the star tandem of Rytis Petraitis and Ethan Taylor run the show. Petraitis is the "point guard" of Scott's Princeton offense. He operates at the top of the arc and averages 17.3 points, 5.5 rebounds and 3.3 assists per game.
UNLV must stay well-schooled when defending the standout forward and watch backdoor cutters. Taylor is Air Force's go-to scorer, posting 16.9 points per night while shooting 39.9% from 3. He's the crux of Air Force's offensive success.
The Princeton-style of play is very slow and methodical, as the Falcons rank 358th in Adjusted Tempo. That's one of the slowest tempos in the sport, but the Falcons will catch you sleeping for an easy basket if you aren't paying close attention. There's constant movement and passing, as they await the perfect opportunity to strike.
UNLV Runnin' Rebels
Keylan Boone becoming eligible altered the tenor of UNLV's roster. His size, shooting and defensive prowess changed UNLV for the better.
The Rebs pummeled Creighton on a neutral floor, beat Boise State in Idaho and narrowly fell short against Utah State and Colorado State.
UNLV is the 18th-best team in America since Boone became eligible on December 13, according to Bart Torvik's metrics.
Most of the Rebels' success comes on offense, as they rank 12th in Offensive Efficiency in the last five weeks.
I'm a bit surprised the Rebels' defense isn't better, though. The team has plenty of capable defenders — like both Boone's and Luis Rodriguez — but sitting at 70th in Defensive Efficiency isn't great.
Dedan Thomas Jr. is arguably the best freshman point guard in college basketball. Thomas is a program legacy, as his father spent four seasons as UNLV's point guard in the 1990s. The younger Thomas is averaging 12.0 points and 6.4 assists per game while shooting 45% from the field and 37% from 3.
The biggest problem with UNLV's style of play is its lack of rebounding. Being 330rd in defensive rebounding percentage causes problems for Kevin Kruger's bunch, and that feels like part of the defense's problem.
Thankfully for the Vegas Rebels, Air Force rarely tries for offense rebounds due to its play style.
Air Force vs. UNLV
Betting Pick & Prediction
I have some serious matchup concerns due to Air Force's lack of quickness and physicality compared to UNLV. I don't see how the Falcons' defense stays afloat against Kalib Boone in the paint and Thomas on the perimeter.
New Mexico freshman JT Toppin dominated Air Force's defense for 25 points and six assists in a 19-point shellacking on Saturday. Kalib should operate in a similar fashion against the Falcons.
From an ATS perspective, the Air Force is one of the worst in college hoops, covering only 35% of the time. That's a total disaster compared to UNLV's strong 61% cover rate.
Pick: UNLV -12.5 (Play to -13)
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