Utah vs. Oregon Odds
| Utah Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+6.5 -110 | 142.5 -110o / -110u | +210 |
| Oregon Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-6.5 -110 | 142.5 -110o / -110u | -275 |
It's a big day for the Utes as the basketball program will take on the Oregon Ducks in while the football program makes their first-ever appearance in the Rose Bowl.
As a program, Utah is just 3-10 all-time against Oregon on the road and just 1-7 since joining the Pac-12. Utah's lone win in the Pac-12 era came on Dec. 29, 2017, which happens to be the only time the Utes have swept the Oregon schools.
Oregon, meanwhile, has had a few extra days to prepare for Utah after its game against Colorado was postponed until Monday, Jan. 3, due to COVID-19 within the Buffs' program. The Ducks struggled out of the gate this season and enter the matchup just 7-6 overall, with an 0-2 mark in early Pac-12 play.
But even with a less-than-ideal start, Oregon is a solid 6-2 when playing inside Matthew Knight Arena where it has outscored opponents by a margin of 13.8 point with a +7.0 rebounding margin. The Ducks are shooting 49% at home while also making 36% from three-point range.
Will the basketball team be able to clinch a possibly historic day for the Utah athletics? Or will Oregon continue to be impressive on its home court?
Utah Utes
In its last game, Utah was led by David Jenkins who scored 22 points while going 5-of-8 from deep, but it wasn't enough to get past Oregon State — a loss that was due largely to Utah setting a season-high 20 turnovers. The turnovers led to a 23-8 advantage for the Beavers in points off of turnovers and an eventual 88-76 loss for the Utes.
Utah may be 8-5 on the season, but it's important to recognize that it only has one win against a team ranked inside the top 100 per KenPom (Fresno State at home).
The Utes have been decent on offense this year, but not great, recording an effective field goal percentage of 49.7% and shooting 34.2% from deep. Utah's biggest advantage has been on defense where it ranks eighth in the country in opponent three-point shooting percentage, allowing the opposition to average just 25.8% from deep. Utah has also been able to limit the opposition to an effective field goal percentage of just 45.2%.
Oregon Ducks
The Ducks have had a rough start to the year, currently standing at 7-6 on the season. And the Ducks have taken losses against bad teams, losing games to Arizona State at home and Stanford on the road. They are currently 0-2 in conference play so far this year, but I think the Ducks match up much better against Utah than they did both Stanford and Arizona State.
Veteran guard Will Richardson has been a leader for the Ducks, averaging 12.7 points, 3.2 rebounds and 3.6 assists, while shooting 44% from the field and 41.4% from 3-point land. However, he has been even better at home, averaging 16.5 points, 3.8 rebounds and 4.5 assists.
Oklahoma transfer De'Vion Harmon is the only other Duck averaging double-figures, recording 10.1 points per game. He also leads the team in steals with 16 so far this season. Jacob Young is nearly averaging double-figures, scoring 9.2 points per game, while also averaging 3.1 assists per contest so far this year.
The Ducks currently rank 33rd per KenPom in Adjusted offensive efficiency and have averaged 70.4 points per game this season. On defense the Ducks have been respectable as well, currently ranking 109th in adjusted defensive efficiency per KenPom. They've also limited opponents to an average of 67.5 points per game.
Utah vs. Oregon Betting Pick
I think Oregon will beat Utah by a large margin, but I think there is a bigger edge on total. I was able to grab this under at an opener of 141.5, but I would feel comfortable taking it as low as 135.
Oregon operates at one of the slowest paces in college basketball, currently ranked 305th per KenPom in adjusted tempo. And while Utah ranks 190th per KenPom in tempo, it has a solid defense which will match up well against an Oregon team that doesn't score much to begin with.
The Utah defense has also been one of the best in the country at defending three-point shooting, where Oregon scores 28.4% of its points. The Ducks have also struggled from the charity stripe, shooting just 67.1% from the line.
