In honor of the 2022 NCAA Tournament, we've rolled out new and improved college basketball player projections to Action Labs so you can take full advantage of March Madness player props.
Built by Action's predictive analytics team featuring myself and Nick Giffen, our goal throughout the men's tournament is to create the most accurate projections possible in order to find any edges in the betting market.
I start my projections process by first examining a plethora of factors that make up the DNA of a team: From their expected pace to their shooting profile to their rebounding ability, and much more. All of the team and player projections are interconnected and change each round based on opponent and projected playing time for individual players.
The Action Labs Props Tool then compares mine and Giffen's projections to all player prop markets in order to highlight where the biggest edges are.
I personally then examine each prop to understand how and why our projections differ from sportsbooks before upgrading the edges to plays. I'll be tracking various edges I like best as picks in the Action Network app, highlighting the rationale behind why our model likes a given prop.
Now let’s have some fun building out our March Madness player prop cards!
