The playing field for men’s college basketball is starting to take shape. Many fans know the top teams encompass Purdue, Houston, Arizona, etc., but the mid-majors are important to highlight at this stage of the season.
Why? Well, we, as bettors, don't want the mid-majors to completely come out of nowhere when they end up upsetting a team in the NCAA tournament. Sure, Fairleigh Dickinson was a surprise to everyone, but Furman and Princeton weren't.
Let’s dive into two teams that could make some noise in March. These two teams are separating themselves from the mid-major pack and could become the next Cinderella story.
UC Irvine Anteaters
Without a doubt, UCI may have the best mascot in college basketball. The Anteaters also have notched wins over USC, Rice and Toledo that can go on their resume for Selection Sunday. However, Hawaii, Long Beach State and UCSB are the likely contenders for the Big West auto-bid.
UCI looks to be the soundest team of the bunch, though. San Jose State could prove to be a bad defeat, but losing to Duquesne by four points, Utah State by 10 points and San Diego State by a single point on the road are all relatively forgivable results. These state that UCI can contend with a lot of strong teams.
Defense has been the main ingredient to the Anteaters’ success. Opponents have shot over 35% from deep on UCI, but it's holding opponents to a 32.4% 3-point attempt rate, the 40th-lowest in the country.
Per ShotQuality, the Anteaters also rank 40th in 3-point quality defensively. They rank third in Rim-and-3 Rate, so opponents aren't manufacturing the most efficient shots off of the Anteaters, either.
Inside the arc, the opposition is only shooting 45.5% on the Anteaters.
Even though Irvine is better on the defensive side of the ball (33rd in KenPom’s Adjusted Defensive Efficiency), it has the best offense (106th) in the Big West.
The Anteaters' effective field goal percentage is 63rd in the country. They're shooting 37.4% from deep and 52% from 2-point range. They only rank 268th in Open 3 Rate and 268th in Rim-and-3 Rate (ShotQuality), but they've produced strong results.
Their issue has been getting to the line and making free throws. They rank 188th in free-throw attempt rate, but they're only hitting 70.4% from the strike. This could hurt late in games in a postseason matchup.
The Anteaters also have a tendency to lose the turnover battle, as they rank 178th offensively and 150th defensively.
That said, they're rebounding better than most, ranking 88th offensively and 83rd defensively.
Head coach Russell Turner has a steady rotation of players, with no one averaging more than 26 minutes per game. However, Derin Saran, Justin Hohn, Pierre Crockrell II, Devin Tillis and Andre Henry are the notable names.
The Anteaters play a well-distributed game and could hand the rock to anyone in crunch time for an important bucket.
Makin' it look easy🤷♂️ #DefendTheBren | #RipEmpic.twitter.com/tp7WM0gJrq
— UCI Men's Basketball (@UCImbb) December 17, 2023
There isn't much current value on UC Irvine winning its conference. UCI could probably be played to +200, but the best line out there, as of December 20, is +135 at FanDuel. Perhaps after a loss, you may find the Anteaters with a better line.
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Grand Canyon Antelopes
James Madison is one of the top mid-majors on the minds of the national audience, especially after it defeated media-darling Michigan State in East Lansing on the opening night of the season.
The Dukes haven't lost a game yet this season, and one of their toughest tests quickly approaches on January 13 against Appalachian State.
That said, with wins over MSU, Kent State, Radford, Southern Illinois and Fresno State, this is shaping up to be a year to remember for the Dukes and their fans. KenPom only predicts one loss for the rest of the regular season (at App State).
JMU is more of the offensive team, as it ranks 39th in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency and 110th defensively. The Dukes own the 26th-ranked effective field goal percentage and are shooting 37.6% from deep and 55.6% from inside.
Per ShotQuality, they rank 137th in Open 3 Rate and 64th in Rim-and-3 Rate. These aren't ideal, but they're better than most teams in the Sun Belt.
Their main issue has been hitting free throws and getting to the free-throw line. The Dukes rank 189th in free-throw attempt rate and are shooting below 70% from the strike.
This doesn't bode well in a tight affair. Had they not missed 12 free throws against Kent State or seven against MSU, they could've defeated both opponents in regulation instead of OT.
Digressing from that point, they're still strong when it comes to giveaways. The Dukes rank 40th in offensive turnover rate and even force turnovers at the 31st-highest clip in college hoops. They rank 214th in points per possession in transition (ShotQuality), but winning the turnover battle is crucial to prolonged success.
JMU ranks 43rd in allowed 3-point percentage and 64th in 3-point attempt percentage. Teams are shooting around 48% on the Dukes from inside, and JMU ranks 264th in defensive rebounding.
T.J. Bickerstaff, Terrence Edwards Jr., Noah Freidel and Michael Green III are all averaging double figures. Bickerstaff and Edwards, though, average a combined 32.4 points and 13.1 rebounds per game. These are the names to be aware of heading into March.
Unfortunately, like UCI, there isn't much value on this team to win its respective conference.
James Madison is heavily favored to win the Sun Belt. If you see a line at plus-money, it may be worth a dabble. That said, seeing this team against Appalachian State would probably make sense before forking over that money.
