Oklahoma State vs. Oregon State Odds
The battle of orange continues in the Midwest region when No. 12 Oregon State battles No. 4 Oklahoma State on Sunday Night.
Oregon State dominated No. 5 Tennessee 70-56 for their seventh win in the past eight games. The Beavers jumped out to a 33-19 lead and never looked back in a "no sweat" cover against the Volunteers.
Oklahoma State faced a stiff test in No. 13 Liberty, but survived 69-60. Sophomore Avery Anderson and super-frosh Cade Cunningham combined for 36 points and 12 rebounds as the Cowboys survived a disciplined and talented Liberty team.
The Beavers became the first Pac-12 team to win the conference tournament after being picked last in the preseason poll. Can they maintain their momentum and reach the Sweet 16 against a Cowboys team with the potential first pick in the 2021 NBA Draft?
The Matchup
Oregon State's torrid end-of-season hot streak continued into the NCAA Tournament.
The Beavers cruised past Tennessee and into the Round of 32 and now face an Oklahoma State team with legitimate star power.
The Cowboys excel at scoring inside the arc, ranking second in the Big 12 with a 52.6% mark inside the arc. Oklahoma State generated the highest percentage of points (55.7%) from 2P range. This is the clear weakness of the Oregon State defense, which allowed opponents to shoot 52.1% (263rd) throughout the season.
Head coach Wayne Tinkle’s team has found success through three areas: A slow pace of play, 3-point defensive efficiency and a vastly-improved offense. Oregon State plays at one of the slowest paces in college basketball, ranking 313th in adjusted tempo per KenPom. The Beavers were the second-slowest team in the Pac-12 but balanced that pace of play with a stifling perimeter defense.
Tinkle mixes up defenses, and his players have responded with remarkable flexibility. They have no trouble transitioning from man-to-man to an aggressive zone defense that allows fewer 3-point attempts than you would expect.
But since Oklahoma State does not rely on the 3P for much of their offense, the Beavers will need to score consistently to win this game.
Oregon State has size on the interior with 6-foot-7 Nicholls State transfer Warith Alatishe, 7-foot-1 center Roman Silva and 6-foot-10 Maurice Calloo. That’s balanced with a great senior leader in guard Ethan Thompson, who leads the team with 15.3 points per game, and scalding-hot sophomore Jarod Lucas (12.9 PPG). Lucas has scored double-digits in 11 of the last 12 games and is one of the best free-throw shooters in the country at 88.9%
Oregon State was decent from 2P in the win over Tennessee (48.6%), but lethal from beyond the arc (47.6%). The Cowboys were the best team in the Big 12 at limiting their opponents from deep, allowing only 32%
The Beavers are tall across the board, ranking 23rd in the country in average height. The size of their guards on the perimeter is particularly problematic for opposing perimeter players. That will be an essential advantage at limiting the Cunningham and Avery Anderson from finding consistent offense.
Cunningham (40%) and Anderson (35%) are the main 3P weapons for Oklahoma State. The Beavers will need to continue their strong perimeter defense and force the Cowboys to score inside against Silva, Calloo, and Alatishe.
Betting Analysis & Pick
Don't step in front of a train.
Oregon State's offense is on a roll, and their defense is playing its best of the season. Tinkle is a brilliant game strategist, as evidenced by the Pac-12 Tournament win over Oregon. The Beavers are playing too well to lay six points, even against a team with future NBA lottery pick Cade Cunningham.
I expect another great offensive performance from the Beavers and will back the underdog with a number that is high enough to cover a close loss.
Pick: Oregon State +6 (Play down to Oregon State +5.5)
