The Favorites Podcast hosted by the Action Network is your best stop shop to glean how to bet March Madness, which begins tonight with Wagner vs. Howard in the First Four.
The podcast — brought to you by bet365 and hosted by Chad Millman — discussed a tried-and-true betting solution to 5 vs. 12 and 4 vs. 13 matchups for this year's NCAA Tournament.
Find us on YouTube for the video version of this podcast.
Effectively, if you bet every single lower seed spread and moneyline for every single 5 vs. 12 and 4 vs. 13 matchup, you'd have made money in 11 of the last 15 NCAA Tournaments.
On the spread, you'd have gone 70-50 (58.3%) for a profit of about $1,363 if you bet $100 for every single contest. On the moneyline, you'd have gone 38-82, but you'd be up $1,440 as a $100 per line bettor as a result of having bet the underdog each and every time.
It's not foolproof — past performances don't indicate future outcomes — but it's a fantastic datapoint nonetheless, and is indicative of consistent misprices in the market relative to these two tournament matchups that are rife with upsets.
This time around, that would constitute 16 total bets on the spread and moneyline.
Here are the following best market prices as of Tuesday night.
No. 4 Auburn vs. No. 13 Yale
- Yale ML: FanDuel at +610
- Yale spread: Fanatics +13 (-110)
No. 4 Alabama vs. No. 13 Charleston
- Charleston ML: Fanatics at +400
- Charleston spread: WynnBet +10 (-110)
No. 4 Duke vs. No. 13 Vermont
- Vermont ML: Wynnbet at +610
- Vermont spread: WynnBet +12 (-110)
No. 4 Kansas vs. No. 13 Samford
- Samford ML: BetMGM at +310
- Samford spread: DraftKings +8.5 (-108)
No. 5 San Diego State vs. No. 12 UAB
- UAB ML: FanDuel at +240
- UAB spread: FanDuel +7.5 (-120)
No. 5 Saint Mary's vs. No. 12 Grand Canyon
- Grand Canyon ML: BetRivers at +205
- Grand Canyon spread: BetParx +5.5 (-107)
No. 5 Wisconsin vs. No. 12 James Madison
- James Madison ML: BetMGM at +195
- James Madison spread: BetMGM +5.5 (-110)
No. 5 Gonzaga vs. No. 12 McNeese
- McNeese ML: BetMGM at +225
- McNeese spread: Fanatics +6.5 (-110)
