Toledo vs. Buffalo Odds
Toledo looks to maintain its lead atop the MAC standings on Friday night when it takes on Buffalo.
Toledo has been amazing this season, going 12-3 in conference play. The Rockets have one of the most electric offenses in the country and will need it to be on point Friday night if they are going to take down the Bulls on the road.
Buffalo has been steady over the past month, as they've won four of their last five in MAC play. The Bulls are three games behind Toledo in the conference standings, so a win on Friday night could help Buffalo's slim chances at winning a MAC regular season title.
When Toledo has the ball
The reason Toledo is atop the MAC standings is because of its offense, which is shooting teams right out of the gym. The Rockets are averaging 1.19 points per possession in conference play and the No. 1 shooting team in the MAC.
Toledo shoots 3-pointers in bunches and attempts them on 47.2% of its field goal attempts. It justifies it by shooting over 37% from behind the arc. However, it's likely going to have a difficult time shooting from deep Friday because the Bulls allow opponents to make less than 30% of their shots from 3-point range.
Toledo is also the best offense in the MAC inside the arc, as they're shooting over 57% from 2-point range and over 62% on shot attempts at the rim, per Hoop-Math. Again, the problem on Friday is going to be the fact that it will also be facing the best paint defense in the conference.
Buffalo is allowing under 45% from 2-point range and 56.6% on shot attempts at the rim. So, it will be interesting to see how the Rockets handle their toughest test of the season.
When Buffalo has the ball
The Bulls have been torching their opponents during conference play, averaging 1.10 points per possession. The reason for that is because they are one of the best offensive rebounding teams in the MAC at well over 35.8%.
They will have a distinct advantage over Toledo on Friday night because the Rockets are the worst defensive rebounding team in the conference, at over 33%, per KenPom. Buffalo should have plenty of second-chance opportunities in this game.
Toledo has been solid defensively during conference play, mainly because outside of its issue with defensive rebounding, it's been solid in almost every area. So, if the Bulls aren't able to dominate on the offensive glass, they are likely going to struggle on offense.
Betting Analysis & Pick
In a matchup of the MAC's best offense versus the best defense, I am going to back the offense to prevail. Buffalo has not seen an offense like Toledo's, and I think it's going to struggle to contain the Rockets.
I only have Buffalo projected as a -0.47 favorite at home, so I think there's some value on the Rockets at +2.5.
Pick: Toledo +2.5 or better .
