College Football Odds: Iowa State vs. Texas
| Iowa State Odds | +1 |
| Texas Odds | -1 |
| Over/Under | 56.5 |
| PRO Projection | ISU -2 | 58.9 |
| Time | 12 p.m. ET |
| TV | ABC |
Over the past few days, both Iowa State and Texas have seen a minus-sign beside their respective spreads at given times, as oddsmakers have done quite a bit of shifting with this line since opening it at Texas -2.5 on Sunday.
Obviously, the current line — as of midday Thursday — is significantly smaller, and sharps are to thank for that. In fact, according to our PRO Report, there's still an edge on the sharp side at the current number.
Note: Data as of 12 p.m. ET Thursday.
College Football Pick: Iowa State vs. Texas
Sharps and big bettors — who are likely one and the same — have taken a liking to the small underdog, which our model projects to not be an underdog at all.
Sharp Action
Iowa State has been slightly more popular (57% of bets as of writing), but it seems that it's not just casual bettors making up that majority. Per Sports Insights Bet Signals, which track and record instances of line movement caused specifically by sharp action, there have been at least four unique cases of pro money hitting the Cyclones since this line opened.
That helps explain why oddsmakers were pushed to bring their spread down to a single point.
Sharp Action edge: Iowa State
Big Money
And as Iowa State is driving the slight majority of bets (which could certainly change come kickoff), it's generated a much heavier majority of actual money.
The 74% of spread dollars that have landed on the Cyclones reveals them to be landing the bigger bets — the ones more likely to come from sharps.
Big Money edge: Iowa State
Model Projections
As mentioned, our model is still finding an edge on this matchup even following the 1.5-point line move. It projects Iowa State as a 2-point favorite, giving considerable value to the underdog at the current number.
Model Projections edge: Iowa State
