Notre Dame vs. Virginia Odds
| Notre Dame Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-5.5 -110 | 64 -110o / -110u | -220 |
| Virginia Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+5.5 -110 | 64 -110o / -110u | +180 |
Brian Kelly and the Notre Dame Fighting Irish look to improve to 9-1 and remain inside the top 10 when they head to Charlottesville to take on Bronco Mendenhall and the Virginia Cavaliers.
Notre Dame has very quietly moved into the top 10 after winning four straight games following a loss to Cincinnati earlier in the season.
Kelly's team has won a ton of close calls this season, and Saturday night on the road at Virginia looks like it's going to be yet another one-score game.
Virginia is maybe the most entertaining team in the country and is coming off a 66-49 loss to BYU two weeks ago, which was the highest-scoring game of the college football season.
Mendenhall's team sits at 6-3 and has scored 48 points or more in their last three games. We'll see if they can keep their high-powered offense going against a good Notre Dame defense.
Notre Dame Fighting Irish
Kyren Williams Starting to Find Groove
With Jack Coan under center, the Fighting Irish offense has been very average all season. But most of the unit's success has come through the air, as Coan is averaging 7.8 yards per attempt and has Notre Dame ranked 62nd in Passing Success Rate.
However, the rushing attack has really struggled from a Success Rate standpoint, ranking 98th in the country. Kyren Williams is starting to heat up, though, as he has rushed for 438 yards and 6.6 yards per carry in his last three games.
Kyren Williams is different pic.twitter.com/Fu50petYKH
— Jac Collinsworth (@JacCollinsworth) November 6, 2021
The good news is they should be able to move the ball efficiently on Saturday because Virginia's defense is one of the worst in college football.
Notre Dame's Defense is Exploitable
The Notre Dame defense has been very susceptible to explosive plays this season, especially on the ground (102nd in Rushing Explosiveness Allowed). So, even if quarterback Brennan Armstrong is out, the Hoos may be able to break off some big runs against the Notre Dame defense.
Notre Dame's secondary is allowing 7.1 yards per pass attempt and ranks 79th in Passing Success Rate.
Notre Dame just allowed North Carolina's Sam Howell to throw for 341 yards on only 31 attempts two weeks ago, so Armstrong should be able to find similar success against the Irish's secondary, which has been below average this season.
Notre Dame is also struggling to get to the quarterback, as it is 72nd in Havoc and has the 58th best pass rushing grade in the country. If the Irish can't get to Armstrong, it's going to be a long day for Notre Dame's defense.
Virginia Cavaliers
Virginia Needs Healthy Brennan Armstrong
In case you haven't been paying attention, Armstrong is one of the most prolific quarterbacks in the country right now.
He's is questionable to play on Saturday night with a rib injury that knocked him out of Virginia's last game, so keep an eye on his status throughout the week.
He did provide an update last week about his status, which seems optimistic.
WATCH: Brennan Armstrong made an appearance at BurgerFi's grand opening during this bye week (thanks to NIL allowance) and gave an optimistic update on his status 👀 pic.twitter.com/7kttNTUmPT
— Danielle Stein (@Danielle_Stein9) November 6, 2021
The Cavaliers' offense has torched opposing defenses, gaining 6.8 yards a play with most of that success coming through the air. Armstrong is averaging 8.6 yards per attempt and has the Virginia offense ranked second in EPA/Play and 12th in EPA/Pass.
Armstrong owns a passing grade of 89.5 on the season with 28 big-time throws in only nine games, per PFF. He is also one of the best deep-ball passers in college football, as he already has 940 yards passing on throws over 20+ yards.
Even if Armstrong is out, the Cavaliers' rushing attack is also lethal. They are averaging 5.0 yards per carry and rank seventh in EPA/Rush.
Virginia is also 10th in Offensive Line Yards and 31st in explosive rushing, so it should be able to establish the run on Notre Dame's front seven.
Virginia Defense Needs to Step Up
Virginia allows 6.7 yards per play, ranks 106th in Success Rate Allowed and 120th in EPA/Play.
The Hoos can't stop the run or the pass, ranking outside the top 100 in both Rushing and Passing Success Rate Allowed. Additionally, Virginia is 117th in Defensive Line Yards and 123rd in Stuff Rate, so I have a hard time seeing how it's going to stop Willams.
You can see why Virginia games have been so chaotic this season, as it maybe has the biggest gap between how good its offense is and how bad its defense is.
Notre Dame vs. Virginia Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Notre Dame and Virginia match up statistically:
Notre Dame Offense vs. Virginia Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 81 | 102 | |
| Line Yards | 103 | 118 | |
| Pass Success | 46 | 114 | |
| Pass Blocking** | 15 | 123 | |
| Big Play | 110 | 81 | |
| Havoc | 87 | 107 | |
| Finishing Drives | 58 | 79 | |
| ** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.) | |||
Virginia Offense vs. Notre Dame Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 38 | 24 | |
| Line Yards | 10 | 26 | |
| Pass Success | 3 | 79 | |
| Pass Blocking** | 21 | 58 | |
| Big Play | 3 | 43 | |
| Havoc | 55 | 72 | |
| Finishing Drives | 13 | 30 | |
| ** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.) | |||
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 5 | 44 |
| Coverage | 26 | 66 |
| Middle 8 | 62 | 26 |
| SP+ Special Teams | 45 | 66 |
| Plays per Minute | 52 | 30 |
| Rush Rate | 52.2% (85) | 38.4% (127) |
Notre Dame vs. Virginia Betting Pick
If Armstrong plays, I have 78.55 points projected for this game. Virginia ranks 23rd in plays per minute, while Notre Dame ranks 55th, so the pace of this game is going to be fast.
Therefore, I think there is value on over 64 points, but I would wait to bet it until Armstrong is confirmed to play on Saturday.
