You know the narrative by now: The Rams are hosting the NFC Championship Game, but that doesn't mean they'll have much (if any) home-field advantage.
It was only three weeks ago when the 49ers marched into a SoFi Stadium filled with plenty of their own fans to clinch an NFL playoff berth with their 27-24 overtime win over the Rams. Now another "sea of red" is expected in Los Angeles this Sunday with a trip to the Super Bowl on the line.
But how is the anticipated volume of 49ers fans expected to impact the Rams' home-field advantage (HFA) from a betting perspective? Four of the six analysts whose models power our NFL PRO Projections explain how many points they're each assigning to the Rams for HFA in their projected odds for this matchup below.
How Much 49ers Fans Impact Rams' Home-Field Advantage
| Analyst | Points for Rams' HFA |
|---|---|
| Stuckey | 0.5 |
| Chris Raybon | 0.25 |
| Raheem Palmer | 0.0 |
| Travis Reed | 0.0 |
Stuckey: 0.5 Points
Home-field advantage continues to diminish across the NFL with each passing season, and the Rams certainly don't have a notable edge in that department between their crowd and zero weather or altitude considerations.
For this particular game, I gave them a half-point for HFA. And while I could easily make the case for not giving them any points for HFA at all. I still gave them a small edge because there's a very slight familiarity edge, and this is the fourth straight road game for the 49ers. That said, the 49ers are certainly familiar with this venue — one reason HFA is worth less for division games — and could very well end up with more fans in the stands.
Plus, both teams were on the road last week, and the Rams even had a longer travel and one less day since their divisional round game.
Chris Raybon: 0.25 Points
The Rams have been slightly better at home in terms of both margin of victory (+7.8 at home vs. +4.4 on the road) and ATS margin (+0.8 at home vs. +0.4 on the road).
All things equal, I still think there’s a slight advantage to playing in your own stadium. But for the Rams against the 49ers, it’s by the slimmest of margins, as there will be a sea of red in the stands.
Raheem Palmer: 0 Points
I'm not factoring in any home-field advantage for the Rams this Sunday. It speaks volumes that the team had a (since-rescinded) policy to restrict ticket sales to fans in the Los Angeles area to optimize the stadium for Rams fans. Even outside of that absurdness, L.A. is largely filled with 49ers (and Raiders) fans, so it's likely there will be more 49ers fans than Rams fans at the game.
In addition, the Rams are just 4-3 straight up and 3-4 ATS since moving to SoFi Stadium.
Travis Reed: 0 Points
I don’t give the Rams (or the Chargers) any home-field advantage throughout the season, and that won’t change in the NFC Championship. You could make a case that the 49ers should get a small amount of home-field advantage given the noise advantage they are likely to have, but I'm sticking with zero.
