Falcons vs Bucs Odds
| Falcons Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3 -120 | 37.5 -110o / -110u | +125 |
| Buccaneers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3 +100 | 37.5 -110o / -110u | -145 |
Falcons vs. Buccaneers odds are on the move, with bet365 and a number of other sportsbooks posting Buccaneers -3 on Sunday morning. Tampa Bay spent most of the week leading up to this game laying just 2.5 points.
With the Saints’ loss on Thursday Night Football, the NFC South is wide open. You could even make the case that the winless Panthers aren’t out of the race just yet. The division-leading Buccaneers have three wins on the season, but that will change on Sunday.
Let's preview the game and make our Falcons vs. Buccaneers pick and prediction.
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Falcons vs. Buccaneers
Matchup Analysis
Overall, the Falcons offense is average. They don’t rank well in any certain statistic, and their 16.5 points per game is 29th in the NFL.
Atlanta runs the ball often on the back of first-round draft pick Bijan Robinson. The Falcons currently have the eighth-most rush attempts in the league, which allows them to wear down opposing defenses.
The run-first approach allows Atlanta to open up the passing game in the fourth quarter. Looking at the Falcons’ performances by quarter, Atlanta is averaging 8.8 passing yards per attempt in the fourth — that's over two yards greater than their next-highest quarter.
They run the ball on first down 56% of the time. When it’s second down, that number decreases to 43%. This isn’t an uncommon practice, but Ridder’s quarterback rating takes a 30-point increase when passing on second down compared to third. All of this to say: the Falcons are effective in establishing the run and complementing it with the pass later in down sets and games.
Bet Atlanta vs. Tampa Bay at FanDuel
The Buccaneers offense is a bit below average, as they total only 4.8 yards per play and a 42% third-down conversion rate. Their poor third-down rate can likely be attributed to how often they leave themselves needing chunks of yards. Over half of their third downs require them to gain six or more yards to earn a new set of downs.
Tampa Bay has one of the worst rush offenses in the league, averaging just three rush yards per attempt. This can be attributed to the Bucs' offensive line, which has a run-block grade of 49.3, the fifth worst in the NFL.
Atlanta’s defense does a good job of preventing explosives, holding opponents to just 4.7 yards per play. The pass defense is just as good, allowing 6.2 yards per pass attempt. The Falcons boast the third-lowest third-down conversion rate and pressure rate, all while only blitzing 22.7% of the time.
The Bucs, on the other hand, blitz nearly twice and often, but get pressure only 20.7% of the time. As a result, their sack and forced hurry rates are just average. While Tampa Bay likes to blitz, it doesn't reap the rewards that should come with bringing the house.
Atlanta’s offense thrives when facing the blitz, specifically Ridder. When opponents blitz him, his quarterback rating increases by 10 points.
Given Tampa Bay’s inability to apply pressure with the blitz, the Falcons have an advantage offensively.
Falcons vs. Buccaneers
Betting Picks & Predictions
Defensively, Atlanta has the weapons needed to keep the Bucs at bay. The Falcons have proved that they can minimize explosive plays, neutralize the run game and prevent third-down conversions.
I will take the divisional road 'dog in this matchup.
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