These are not picks that I'm going to officially log in the Action App tonight, but they are noteworthy edges that I deemed worthy of sharing.
Bengals vs. Cowboys closes NFL Week 14 on Monday Night Football, and my projections are showing edges on these two players. This would work well for a PrizePicks play for tonight's game with a player on each team.
Hudson might not get a lot of playing time, but it tends to be a pass play when he’s on the field and he tends to see a high target rate. Hudson has been targeted on 31% of routes run this season. This has been the case for him since the start of last season.
Hudson also tends to see high-percentage targets underneath. The Cowboys have struggled to defend those this season, allowing the third-most yards after catch over expected in the NFL.
I have Hudson projected to run a route on around 10 of Burrow’s drop backs, which could turn into two or three receptions for him. That should be enough to clear this total.
Jalen Tolbert Less Than 2.5 Receptions
The Cowboys WR room is pretty crowded after Brandin Cooks returned last week. Jalen Tolbert was running a route on 95% of dropbacks without Cooks, but that number dropped to 75% last week, which was his second lowest of the season.
Tolbert already doesn’t see a lot of targets, so a dip in playing time lowers his floor even more.
Plus, Jake Ferguson is back after missing the last two games. That will only ding Tolbert’s target rate even more.
Tolbert tends to see targets downfield that have a lower expected catch rate in the 60-65% range. When he does catch them, he can rack up yards, so I’m not looking to fade that market.
I think if you’re going to fade Tolbert, less than 2.5 receptions is the way to go. I project him with about a 60% chance of registering less than 2.5 catches.
