Bills vs. Chiefs Odds & Picks
| Pick |
|---|
| Chiefs -2.5 |
| Bills +3 |
| Bills +3 |
| Zack Moss Over 8.5 Rush Attempts |
| Clyde Edwards-Helaire Over 12.5 Rush Attempts |
Chiefs -2.5
Raheem Palmer: The chatter about the Chiefs' struggling defense has been loud, but in the grand scheme of things, opposing teams need to score 30-plus points to beat K.C. on any given Sunday.
Their two losses came against the Ravens and Chargers where they lost the turnover margin 6-2, including a Clyde Edwards-Helaire fumble at the end of the fourth quarter in their game against the Ravens before they could kick the potential game-winning field goal. Had the Chiefs won at least on of those games, the perception around them would be completely different.
Patrick Mahomes is still leading a Chiefs offense that ranks first in Football Outsiders’ DVOA, first in EPA/play and second in Offensive Success Rate (55.8%).
The Bills rank first in Defensive DVOA, but they've played the 32nd-ranked schedule of opposing offenses, facing quarterbacks like Davis Mills, Jacoby Brissett, Taylor Heinicke and the current washed-up version of Ben Roethlisberger.
Mahomes is a different animal, however, and the Bills will have no answer for Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce, particularly in the absence of linebacker Matt Milano who will be a game-time decision (hamstring). Keep in mind, these two teams played last season with the Chiefs laying -5.5 in Buffalo, so from my view this number is cheap.
I'll take the Chiefs at a bargain at under a field goal.
Bills +3
Stuckey: Buffalo has one of the smartest coaching staffs in the league, so I assume it'll have some new defensive schemes and offensive wrinkles cooked up. I also trust head coach Sean McDermott will be much more aggressive on fourth-down decisions.
The Bills offense isn't playing at its peak right now, but the Chiefs defense can't stop anyone. Bills Mafia would also point out its pass-catching options are now healthy and better with Emmanuel Sanders.
On the other end, Buffalo's defense is playing at an elite level, but it likely doesn't have the ability to dominate a game like we saw the Bucs in the Super Bowl.
The weakest unit in this game at the moment is the Chiefs defense — by far. The gap between the Bills offense and Chiefs defense is greater than the gap between the Chiefs offense and Bills defense.
The atmosphere should be rocking in Arrowhead, but road teams actually have a winning record around the league so far this season. I can back Buffalo with three points.
Like the Ravens did, I think Buffalo finally overcomes the Chiefs.
Should Chiefs fans panic if they lose this game? Absolutely not. Mahomes will still most likely be in the AFC Championship Game and until one of the contenders beats him in the postseason, the Chiefs will remain the kings of the AFC.
On top of the spread, my main investment in the game will be live. I will be looking for as many chances as possible to bet either team when they get down by a touchdown or more based on game flow. Follow along on Twitter and/or in the Action App. You can read more about my pick, and my full matchup breakdown, in my Sunday Night Football guide here.
Bills +3
Brandon Anderson: The Chiefs offense needs no introduction.
Kansas City has the league's top DVOA offense and Patrick Mahomes might be having his best season ever. He leads the league with 14 touchdown passes with at least three in every game, putting him on pace for a record-breaking 60 over the season. He also leads the league in QBR and has thrown a touchdown once every 10 passes — and he's doing it underhanded and no-look these days, just because he can.
But this Bills defense might be up to the task.
The Bills defense leads the league in DVOA — they actually have one of the best defenses in NFL history through four games, per Football Outsiders. Buffalo's run defense ranks second in EPA per play while its pass defense ranks first. Opponents average -0.341 EPA per passing play against Buffalo, an absolutely absurd number.
The Chiefs have the No. 1 passing offense at 0.274 EPA per play. That means Kansas City gains about one "expected" point every four plays, and that makes sense. Passing is the most efficient way to move the ball, and offenses are supposed to gain points, not lose them.
But teams playing Buffalo this season are losing 0.341 EPA per pass play, meaning every three pass plays actually cost the opponent an expected point. Buffalo is 193% better than the second-best pass defense right now!
So who wins out: The Chiefs' mighty offense? Or the Bills' awesome defense?
It's a great question … but it might be the wrong one.
Kansas City will score, because Mahomes is Mahomes, but I'm making my pick based on the other side of the ball — because the Chiefs are an outlier on that side, too, and not a good one. Kansas City ranks dead-last in both rush and pass defense DVOA. The Chiefs are also dead-last in passing EPA per play on D, and they've allowed 19 trips to the red zone, tied for the most. Even in a fairly comfortable win over the Eagles last week, Philly moved the ball at will against Kansas City and lived in the red zone — the Eagles just failed to convert there.
The Bills defense is great enough to slow the Chiefs offense, at least a little. But Buffalo's offense is a better version of Philly's. The Bills have run the ball well and have a quarterback who can run, and Josh Allen and Stefon Diggs should light up this secondary. Remember Buffalo's elite pass D? Kansas City allows 0.422 EPA per pass play, an expected point every two and a half throws.
The Bills will absolutely move the ball on this team, and remember, the Chiefs tend to start out slowly and fall behind. This Buffalo defense is the real deal and not the team you want to be facing if you're trying to rally from behind.
It's easy to look at this line and just blindly play Mahomes by a field goal at home ignoring everything else, but the noise in Kansas City is getting pretty loud. Josh Allen is 11-4-1 (73%) ATS in toss-up games with a line of three or less, and he's 14-6-2 ATS (70%) as an underdog.
Mahomes is pretty good, but so is Allen. And the Chiefs are vulnerable while the Bills are playing like the best team in the league.
Sunday night should be a good one.
Zack Moss Over 8.5 Rush Attempts
Mike Randle: This prop is still suppressed by Zack Moss’ slow start to the 2021 season.
While it is true that Moss is averaging just 11.6 carries per game, he was inactive for Week 1 and therefore gradually assimilated into Week 2. Over the last two weeks he has established himself as the clear RB1 in this Buffalo offense.
Moss has averaged 13.5 carries while climbing to a 60% snap share in Week 4. The Bills will certainly want to keep Patrick Mahomes and Kansas City’s passing attack off the field as much as possible, which is why we have Moss projected for 11 carries in Sean Koerner's PlayerProp Tool.
Buffalo ranks fourth in team rushing attempts, and Moss should see the majority of the carries in Week 5. Despite missing Week 1, Moss ranks seventh among all running backs with 15 red-zone touches.
This is a 10-rated prop on the FantasyLabs Player Prop tool, and I project it rising as we get close to this fantastic Sunday Night Football matchup. I would take it up to 9.5 carries.
Clyde Edwards-Helaire Over 12.5 Rush Attempts
Michael Arinze: We could be in store for some inclement weather on Sunday night when the Chiefs host the Bills. That might explain why the total's ticked back down from 57 to 56.5. That number's worth watching throughout the rest of the day.
But whether it rains or not, I've got my eye on a Clyde Edwards-Helaire prop.
Through four games, Edwards-Helaire is averaging 14.5 rush attempts this season, and he's had at least 13 rush attempts in every game. I believe the Chiefs will continue to run their offense despite this Buffalo defense that's ranked second in Football Outsiders’ Rush DVOA and first overall in Total DVOA.
However, the Bills have benefited from a favorable schedule thus far as their opponents are a combined 5-11 on the season. Now, you can only play who's in front of you, but none of those teams are ranked higher than 25th in Offensive Rush DVOA. In contrast, the Chiefs are ranked fourth in this category and have already faced two top-10 teams in Defensive Rush DVOA.
You might recall that Edwards-Helaire went off with 26 carries for 161 yards in the Chiefs and Bills Week 6 meeting last year.
This number seems short to me, so I wouldn't waste any time to grab the over with Edwards-Helaire's 12.5 rushing attempts at BetMGM. I would play this up to 13.5 but would probably lower my bet-sizing.
