There's plenty of attention on the Kansas City Chiefs sidelines tonight, with stalwart kicker Harrison Butker out of the lineup for tonight's Thursday Night Football game.
However, I'm looking at the other side of the ball for my kicker prop.
NFL Week 2 Thursday Night Football Player Props
Dustin Hopkins
Under 7.5 Kicking Points
Be sure to shop around here, because some books have this prop set at 6.5 points.
However, because the game between the Chiefs and Chargers is expected to be a high-scoring affair, Hopkins' kicking points prop stands at 7.5 points at DraftKings and Caesars.
That one extra point is important. It's the difference between making this a pass or a bet.
Our expert projections give Hopkins nearly a 61% chance of going under 7.5 points, which equates to odds of -155
Remember, at home Hopkins kicks in a dome on turf. However, tonight he'll be on grass, outdoors, with 10 mph winds in the forecast.
Those are each small dings against kicking accuracy, especially on longer kicks. And while each individually may not mean a lot, when added together it's enough to push his field goals made projection down by an extra 0.1 compared to being at home.
Add in Chargers' head coach Brandon Staley's propensity to go for it on fourth down, and this under has some nice value.
Caesars has this number at -127 as the best value out there, but -130 at DraftKings is also worth a bet. I wouldn't go any lower than -130.
