Jelani Woods Receiving Yards
| Prop | Jelani Woods Over 19.5 Receiving Yards (-135) |
| Matchup | Chargers vs. Colts |
| Day, Time | Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET |
| Best Book | DraftKings |
Kylen Granson has been ruled out, which means Jelani Woods should see an increase in routes run tonight.
Woods has only cleared a 30% routes run rate in three games this season, but in those contests, he exceeded this total (19.5). In Week 12, Granson was out and Woods ran a route on 69% of dropbacks and cashed in with a massive line.
Week 6: 36% (2/27/1)
Week 12: 69% (8/98/0)
Week 15: 30% (1/36/0)
With the Colts mathematically eliminated from the playoffs, I can see them trying to get Woods as many reps as possible. They took him in the fourth round of the 2022 NFL Draft, but while he's a talent — his 4.61 40-yard time is the second fastest by a player 6’7” or taller — he's still fairly raw.
Nick Foles gets his first start of the season and he doesn’t have much chemistry with any of the pass-catchers, which should only help a player typically further down the target pecking order (like Woods). Foles has historically targeted his tight ends at a fairly high rate — another reason why I like Woods.
I’m projecting Woods’ median receiving yards closer to 24.5 yards, but look at my underlying projections feeding into that: 50% routes run rate, 19.5% targets per route run rate and a 68.5% catch rate.
It seems like my projection is a bit on the conservative side, meaning he has even more upside in this market than my underlying numbers are giving credit for.
