Last week ended like our others so far, one bet short of hitting our full parlay. That puts us up to 10 hits on 13 bets but zero paid parlays. Hopefully, we can escape the bad beats this week and take home the big bucks!
As a reminder, our process is built on creating a script for Sunday Night Football. Then, follow that script to build a parlay that optimizes our expected return. This will allow us to use PointsBets’ $20 free bet for SNF in the most efficient manner.
Cowboys vs. Vikings Odds
The SNF matchup might be the hardest to project this weekend. The difficulty comes from the unclear health surrounding Cowboys quarterback, Dak Prescott. Behind Prescott, Dallas has worked its way to the number one ranked offense in both yards and points.
If Prescott misses, the offense is left in the hands of Cooper Rush who has thrown three regular-season passes. The spread movement from Dallas being favored by two to being three-point underdogs shows the impact of Prescott’s injury.
The Vikings are one of the last teams you want to start a hobbled or backup quarterback against. Minnesota’s defense currently ranks fourth-best on the year, and that is largely due to its ability to create pressure. The Vikings rank first in pressure rate per pro-football-reference.
Offensively, the Vikings' gameplan is always clear, establish the run and let Kirk Cousins play within the system. This means leaning on Dalvin Cook and Alexander Mattison heavily on the ground and hitting Justin Jefferson for chunk plays when the defense over-commits.
On a traditional week, backing the Cowboys' offense to get things going is pretty safe, but quarterback troubles make this far from ordinary. To protect whomever starts, the Cowboys will likely turn to the run game to make their life easy. While the Cowboys have run successfully this year, it is different when other teams can focus on the run because of passing limitations.
With the background now set, I expect a fast game as both teams turn to the run. Keeping the ball on the ground will mean scoring drives will typically be long and eat the clock. A shortened game will mean just one or two big plays will be needed for a team to greatly swing the game in its favor.
Dallas does have the top defensive big play creator in Trevon Diggs, who has six interceptions on the year. However, Diggs will be matched up with one of the NFL’s best receivers in Jefferson. A misplayed gamble could be all Minnesota needs to get a lead then milk the clock until the end of the game.
Our script is much less murky in this one given the lack of clarity surrounding this matchup. We were able to set the stage for a low-scoring, run-heavy game though. It may not be much, but it was enough to build a parlay I like with an appetizing odds number.
The Parlay (+1209)
- Justin Jefferson Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+125)
- Dalvin Cook to get 100+ rushing yards (+110)
- Race to 30 Points – Neither (+105)
PointsBet Same-Game Parlay: Cowboys vs. Vikings
Justin Jefferson Anytime TD Scorer (+125)
The key to this pick is Jefferson’s matchup against Trevon Diggs. As mentioned above, Diggs is a high-risk/high-reward type of player. We saw his gambling get burned against the Patriots as a double move freed Kendrick Bourne for a 75-yard touchdown.
That is an extreme case, but Jefferson has the talent and route running to create separation with double moves. Jefferson’s impressive play has him ranked seventh at receiver this year, and after a bye, I expect Minnesota to have a few tricks up its sleeve for its elite receiver.
Dalvin Cook To Get 100+ Rushing Yards (+110)
This bet is highly inspired by the Justin Jefferson touchdown. In the breakdown, I referenced the team that hits on the big plays will swing things to its advantage. The Jefferson touchdown I believe will be that play early. That means Minnesota will have a lead and will happily feed their running backs to grind the clock.
Fortunately, Dallas’s defense has not faired too well against the run. They may have only allowed the fifth-fewest yards, but they allow 4.3 yards per carry, which ranks 18th. The Patriots found success on the ground, and their runners do not have the talent Dalvin Cooks does.
Highest Scoring Half: 2H (+105)
This is the bet that boosted our odds. The first two bets give odds of +370, and this bet nearly tripled our total odds.
Based on Cowboys games this season, it is no wonder why this skyrocketed our odds. Dallas has had just one game this year where neither team scored 30 points. However, our script is based on either backup or limited quarterback play. If Cooper Rush plays, I think it is safe to say head coach Mike McCarthy will stay conservative to protect his backup.
If Prescott plays, I am thinking his calf will limit his performance. We have seen several players forced to the IR because of calf injuries, including Christian McCaffrey and Kareem Hunt. Of course, they play running back and mobility is more important to them, but for Dak, this means he will not be able to use his athleticism as usual.
Against the top pass-rush team in the league, that could be a problem. I also think an injured leg will limit Prescott’s ability to throw deep if he plays. This will force the Cowboys to have long scoring drives and keep the score down.
As for the Vikings, they play to their opponent. Five of the Vikings’ games have ended within one score and have come in all different ways. Against the Browns and Lions, neither team scored 20 points, but against the Cardinals and Panthers, the games ended in a more shootout style. These up-and-down games are because the Vikings prefer to run the ball and control the clock when they can.
If the Cowboys’ offense is limited as I expect, Minnesota will follow suit simply out of preference. This should force a low-scoring game similar to what we saw against the Browns and Lions, even if it is not to that extreme. I preferred to take an under for this spot, but the three times value from this was too good to pass up.
There you have it – a five-leg parlay for with +1209 odds. Unlike previous weeks where we broke down half-by-half, this week moreso hinges on Prescott playing hurt or limited. Hopefully, that is the case, and we get to celebrate a big payout!
